DBRS Morningstar Upgrades Rating of Locat SV S.r.l. - Series 2016

DBRS Ratings GmbH (DBRS Morningstar) upgraded the rating of the Class A Notes issued by Locat SV S.r.l. - Series 2016 (the Issuer) to AA (low) (sf) from A (high) (sf).

The upgrade follows an annual review of the transaction and is based on the following analytical considerations:

-- Portfolio performance, in terms of delinquencies and defaults, as of the September 2019 payment date;
-- Probability of default (PD), loss given default (LGD) and expected loss assumptions on the remaining receivables;
-- Current available credit enhancement to the Class A Notes to cover the expected losses at the AA (low) (sf) rating level.

The rating on the Class A Notes addresses the timely payment of interest and ultimate payment of principal by the legal final maturity date in December 2042.

Locat SV S.r.l. - Series 2016 is a securitisation of lease receivables backed by financial lease contracts granted and serviced by UniCredit Leasing S.p.A. to corporates, small and medium-sized businesses and individual enterprises with registered offices in Italy. The transaction closed in November 2016, when the SPV issued one class of floating-rate notes and one class of variable-return notes, namely the Class A Notes and the Class B Notes.

PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE
The portfolio is performing within DBRS Morningstar’s initial expectations. As of September 2019, two- to three-month arrears represented 0.3% of the outstanding portfolio balance, down from 1.1% in September 2018. The 90+ delinquency ratio was 0.7%, down from 1.5% in September 2018. The gross cumulative default ratio was 2.5%, having increased from 1.6 % in September 2018.

PORTFOLIO ASSUMPTIONS
DBRS Morningstar conducted a loan-by-loan analysis of the remaining pool of receivables and has updated its base case PD and LGD assumptions to 16.1% and 83.5%, respectively.

CREDIT ENHANCEMENT
As of the September 2019 payment date, credit enhancement to the Class A Notes was 50.0%, up from 30.6% at the DBRS Morningstar initial rating date. Credit enhancement to the Class A Notes is provided by the overcollateralisation of the outstanding collateral portfolio and includes the debt service reserve. The reserve is available to cover any shortfall on senior fee, expenses and interest on the Class A Notes and it is currently at its target level of EUR 18.1 million, which accounts for 1.5% of the Class A Notes outstanding balance.

BNP Paribas Securities Services SCA/Milan acts as the account bank for the transaction, with UniCredit S.p.A. being appointed as the collection account bank. Based on the private rating of BNP Paribas Securities Services SCA/Milan and UniCredit S.p.A., the downgrade provisions outlined in the transaction documents, and structural mitigants, DBRS Morningstar considers the risk arising from the exposure to the account bank and to the collection account bank to be consistent with the rating assigned to the rated notes, as described in DBRS Morningstar's "Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions" methodology.

The transaction structure was analysed in Intex DealMaker.

Notes:
All figures are in euros unless otherwise noted.

The principal methodology applicable to the rating is the “Master European Structured Finance Surveillance Methodology”. DBRS Morningstar has applied the principal methodology consistently and conducted a review of the transaction in accordance with the principal methodology.

A review of the transaction legal documents was not conducted as the legal documents have remained unchanged since the most recent rating action.

Other methodologies referenced in this transaction are listed at the end of this press release. These may be found on www.dbrs.com at: http://www.dbrs.com/about/methodologies.

For a more detailed discussion of the sovereign risk impact on Structured Finance ratings, please refer to “Appendix C: The Impact of Sovereign Ratings on Other DBRS Credit Ratings” of the “Global Methodology for Rating Sovereign Governments” at: https://www.dbrs.com/research/350410/global-methodology-for-rating-sovereign-governments.

The sources of data and information used for these ratings include investor reports provided by Securitisation Services S.p.A., servicer reports provided by UniCredit Leasing S.p.A. and loan-level data provided by the European DataWarehouse GmbH.

DBRS Morningstar did not rely upon third-party due diligence in order to conduct its analysis.

At the time of the initial rating, DBRS Morningstar was supplied with third-party assessments. However, this did not impact the rating analysis.

DBRS Morningstar considers the data and information available to it for the purposes of providing this rating to be of satisfactory quality.

DBRS Morningstar does not audit or independently verify the data or information it receives in connection with the rating process.

The last rating action on this transaction took place on 10 October 2018, when DBRS Morningstar upgraded the rating on the Class A Notes to A (high) (sf) from A (sf).

The lead analyst responsibilities for this transaction have been transferred to Daniele Canestrari.

Information regarding DBRS Morningstar ratings, including definitions, policies and methodologies, is available on www.dbrs.com.

To assess the impact of changing the transaction parameters on the rating, DBRS Morningstar considered the following stress scenarios, as compared to the parameters used to determine the rating (the Base Case):

-- DBRS Morningstar expected a lifetime base case PD and LGD for the pool based on a review of the current assets. Adverse changes to asset performance may cause stresses to base case assumptions and therefore have a negative effect on credit ratings.

-- The base case PD and LGD of the current pool of loans for the Issuer are 16.1% and 83.5%, respectively.

-- The Risk Sensitivity overview below illustrates the ratings expected if the PD and LGD increase by a certain percentage over the base-case assumption. For example, if the LGD increases by 50%, the rating of the Class A Notes would be expected to fall to A (high) (sf), assuming no change in the PD. If the PD increases by 50%, the rating for the Class A Notes would be expected to fall to A (low) (sf), assuming no change in the LGD. Furthermore, if both the PD and LGD increase by 50%, the rating of the Class A Notes would be expected to fall to BBB (sf).

Class A Notes Risk Sensitivity:

-- 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected rating of A (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected rating of A (low) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (low) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of BBB (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of BBB (sf)

For further information on DBRS Morningstar historical default rates published by the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) in a central repository, see: http://cerep.esma.europa.eu/cerep-web/statistics/defaults.xhtml.

Ratings assigned by DBRS Ratings GmbH are subject to EU and US regulations only.

Lead Analyst: Daniele Canestrari, Financial Analyst
Rating Committee Chair: Alfonso Candelas, Senior Vice President
Initial Rating Date: 14 November 2016

DBRS Ratings GmbH
Neue Mainzer Straße 75
60311 Frankfurt am Main - Deutschland
Geschäftsführer: Detlef Scholz
Amtsgericht Frankfurt am Main, HRB 110259

The rating methodologies used in the analysis of this transaction can be found at: http://www.dbrs.com/about/methodologies.

-- Interest Rate Stresses for European Structured Finance Transactions
-- Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions
-- Master European Structured Finance Surveillance Methodology
-- Operational Risk Assessment for European Structured Finance Servicers
-- Rating European Consumer and Commercial Asset-Backed Securitisations
-- Rating CLOs and CDOs of Large Corporate Credit

A description of how DBRS Morningstar analyses structured finance transactions and how the methodologies are collectively applied can be found at: http://www.dbrs.com/research/278375.

For more information on this credit or on this industry, visit www.dbrs.com or contact us at info@dbrs.com.