DBRS Morningstar Assigns AA (low) Rating to Banco BPI S.A. Covered Bonds (Obrigações Hipotecárias - Mortgages) Series 23

DBRS Ratings Limited (DBRS Morningstar) assigned a AA (low) rating to the Series 23 Obrigações Hipotecárias (OH; the Portuguese legislative covered bonds) issued under the Banco BPI S.A. (BPI or the Issuer) Covered Bonds Programme (the Programme). Series 23 is a EUR 1,400 million floating-rate bond with a coupon that is 30 basis points over three-month Euribor. The bond matures in December 2024.

At the same time, DBRS Morningstar discontinued the rating of Series 12, which was repaid early on 20 December 2019.

All covered bonds issued under the Programme rank pari passu with each other and are currently rated AA (low) by DBRS Morningstar.

The rating is based on the following analytical considerations:
-- A Covered Bonds Attachment Point (CBAP) reflective of the likelihood that the source of payments will switch from the Reference Entity (RE) to the cover pool (CP). BPI is the Issuer of and RE for the Programme. BPI was not assigned a Long-Term Critical Obligations Rating, nor does DBRS Morningstar consider the Republic of Portugal (rated BBB (high) with a Stable trend by DBRS Morningstar) as a jurisdiction in which covered bonds (CBs) are a particularly important financing tool.
-- A Legal and Structuring Framework (LSF) Assessment of “Adequate” associated with the Programme.
-- A Cover Pool Credit Assessment (CPCA) of BBB (low), which is the lowest CPCA in line with the LSF-Implied Likelihood (LSF-L).
-- An LSF-L of “A”.
-- A two-notch uplift for high recovery prospects.
-- A level of overcollateralisation (OC) of 14.3% to which DBRS Morningstar gives credit, which is the minimum level observed in the past 12 months adjusted by a scaling factor of 0.85.

The transaction was analysed with the DBRS Morningstar European Covered Bond Cash Flow tool. The main assumptions focused on the timing of defaults and recoveries of the assets, interest rate stresses, and market value spreads to calculate liquidation values on the CP.

Everything else being equal, a one-notch downgrade of the CBAP would lead to a one-notch downgrade of the LSF-L, resulting in a one-notch downgrade of the CB rating.

In addition, all else unchanged, the OH ratings would be downgraded if any of the following occurred: (1) the CPCA was downgraded to below BBB (low); (2) the sovereign rating of the Republic of Portugal was downgraded to below BBB (low); (3) the LSF Assessment associated with the Programme was downgraded to “Modest”; (4) the quality of the CP and the level of OC were no longer sufficient to support a two-notch uplift for high recovery prospects; (5) the relative amortisation profile of the OH and CP moved adversely; or (6) volatility in the financial markets caused the currently estimated market value spreads to increase.

For further information on the Programme, please refer to the rating report at www.dbrs.com.

Notes:
All figures are in euros unless otherwise noted.

The principal methodology applicable to the rating is: “Rating and Monitoring Covered Bonds”.

In DBRS Morningstar’s opinion, the changes under consideration do not require the application of the entire principal methodology. Therefore, DBRS Morningstar focused on the cash flow analysis.

Other methodologies referenced in this transaction are listed at the end of this press release.

These may be found on www.dbrs.com at: http://www.dbrs.com/about/methodologies.

For a more detailed discussion of the sovereign risk impact on Structured Finance ratings, please refer to “Appendix C: The Impact of Sovereign Ratings on Other DBRS Credit Ratings” of the “Global Methodology for Rating Sovereign Governments” at: https://www.dbrs.com/research/350410/global-methodology-for-rating-sovereign-governments.

The sources of data and information used for the rating include investor reports and stratification tables provided by the Issuer.

DBRS Morningstar did not rely upon third-party due diligence in order to conduct its analysis.

At the time of the initial rating, DBRS Morningstar was not supplied with third-party assessments. However, this did not impact the rating analysis.

DBRS Morningstar considers the data and information available to it for the purposes of providing this rating to be of satisfactory quality.

DBRS Morningstar does not audit or independently verify the data or information it receives in connection with the rating process.

The last rating action on this transaction took place on 29 March 2019, when DBRS Morningstar confirmed its AA (low) ratings on the OH issued under the Programme.

Information regarding DBRS Morningstar ratings, including definitions, policies and methodologies, is available on www.dbrs.com.

For further information on DBRS Morningstar historical default rates published by the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) in a central repository, see: http://cerep.esma.europa.eu/cerep-web/statistics/defaults.xhtml.

Ratings assigned by DBRS Ratings Limited are subject to EU and US regulations only.

Lead Analyst: Roger Bickert, Vice President
Rating Committee Chair: Christian Aufsatz, Managing Director
Initial Rating Date: 1 April 2015

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The rating methodologies used in the analysis of this transaction can be found at: http://www.dbrs.com/about/methodologies.