DBRS Morningstar Upgrades Ratings on BBVA Consumo 9 FT

DBRS Ratings GmbH (DBRS Morningstar) upgraded the following ratings on the bonds issued by BBVA Consumo 9 FT (the Issuer):

-- Series A Notes upgraded to AA (sf) from A (sf)
-- Series B Notes upgraded to BB (high) (sf) from BB (sf)

The rating on the Series A Notes addresses the timely payment of interest and ultimate payment of principal on or before the legal final maturity date in September 2033. The rating on the Series B Notes addresses the ultimate payment of interest and principal on or before the legal final maturity date.

The rating actions follow an annual review of the transaction and are based on the following analytical considerations:

-- Portfolio performance, in terms of delinquencies, defaults, and losses as of the December 2019 payment date.
-- Probability of default (PD), loss given default (LGD), and expected loss assumptions on the remaining receivables.
-- Current available credit enhancement to the notes to cover the expected losses at their respective rating levels.

The Issuer is a securitisation of Spanish consumer loan receivables originated and serviced by Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. (BBVA). The transaction closed in March 2017 and included an 18-month revolving period, which ended in September 2018.

PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE
As of the December 2019 payment date, loans in arrears for more than 90 days represented 3.9% of the outstanding performing balance of receivables, up from 1.9% as of the December 2018 payment date. The cumulative default ratio, defined as loans more than 18 months in arrears, was at 0.9% of the original balance, with recoveries of 2.2% so far.

PORTFOLIO ASSUMPTIONS
DBRS Morningstar conducted a loan-by-loan analysis of the remaining pool of receivables and has updated its base case PD and LGD assumptions to 9.3% and 79.9%, respectively.

CREDIT ENHANCEMENT
As of the December 2019 payment date, credit enhancement to the Series A Notes was 22.3%, up from 14.8% last year. Credit enhancement to the Series B Notes was 8.0%, up from 4.9% in the same period. Credit enhancement is provided by the subordination of the junior classes and the reserve fund.

The transaction benefits from a reserve fund of EUR 61.9 million, which is available to cover senior fees, interest, and principal on the Series A Notes and Series B Notes. The reserve fund will start amortising, subject to the floor of EUR 30.9 million, in case the balance of loans in arrears for more than 90 days will drop below 1% of the outstanding performing balance of receivables.

BBVA acts as the account bank for the transaction. Based on the DBRS Morningstar public reference rating of BBVA at A (high), which is one notch below its DBRS Morningstar Long-Term Critical Obligations Rating (COR) of AA (low), the downgrade provisions outlined in the transaction documents, and other mitigating factors inherent in the transaction structure, DBRS Morningstar considers the risk arising from the exposure to the account bank to be consistent with the rating assigned to the Series A Notes, as described in DBRS Morningstar's "Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions" methodology.

DBRS Morningstar analysed the transaction structure in Intex DealMaker.

For additional disclosure related to the impact of Coronavirus (COVID-19) on DBRS Morningstar Methodologies please see the following link:https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/357883/dbrs-morningstar-provides-update-on-rating-methodologies-in-light-of-measures-to-contain-coronavirus-disease-covid-19.

Notes:
All figures are in euros unless otherwise noted.

The principal methodology applicable to the ratings is the “Master European Structured Finance Surveillance Methodology”. DBRS Morningstar has applied the principal methodology consistently and conducted a review of the transaction in accordance with the principal methodology.

A review of the transaction legal documents was not conducted as the legal documents have remained unchanged since the most recent rating action.

Other methodologies referenced in this transaction are listed at the end of this press release. These may be found on www.dbrs.com at: http://www.dbrs.com/about/methodologies.

For a more detailed discussion of the sovereign risk impact on Structured Finance ratings, please refer to “Appendix C: The Impact of Sovereign Ratings on Other DBRS Credit Ratings” of the “Global Methodology for Rating Sovereign Governments” at: https://www.dbrs.com/research/350410/global-methodology-for-rating-sovereign-governments.

The sources of data and information used for these ratings include investor reports provided by the management company Europea de Titulización, S.A., S.G.F.T., and loan-level data provided by the European DataWarehouse GmbH.

DBRS Morningstar did not rely upon third-party due diligence in order to conduct its analysis.

At the time of the initial rating, DBRS Morningstar was supplied with third-party assessments. However, this did not impact the rating analysis.

DBRS Morningstar considers the data and information available to it for the purposes of providing these ratings to be of satisfactory quality.

DBRS Morningstar does not audit or independently verify the data or information it receives in connection with the rating process.

The last rating action on this transaction took place on 13 March 2019, when DBRS Morningstar confirmed its ratings of A (sf) on the Series A Notes and BB (sf) on the Series B Notes.

The lead analyst responsibilities for this transaction have been transferred to Shalva Beshia.

Information regarding DBRS Morningstar ratings, including definitions, policies and methodologies is available at www.dbrs.com.

To assess the impact of changing the transaction parameters on the rating, DBRS Morningstar considered the following stress scenarios as compared with the parameters used to determine the rating (the Base Case):

-- DBRS Morningstar expected a lifetime base case PD and LGD for the pool based on a review of the current assets. Adverse changes to asset performance may cause stresses to base case assumptions and therefore have a negative effect on credit ratings.

-- The base case PD and LGD of the current pool of loans for the Issuer are 9.3% and 79.9%, respectively.

-- The Risk Sensitivity overview below illustrates the ratings expected if the PD and LGD increase by a certain percentage over the base case assumption. For example, if the LGD increases by 50%, the rating on the Series A Notes would be expected to fall to A (high) (sf), assuming no change in the PD. If the PD increases by 50%, the rating on the Series A Notes would be expected to fall to A (sf), assuming no change in the LGD. Furthermore, if both the PD and LGD increase by 50%, the rating on the Series A Notes would be expected to fall to BBB (high) (sf).

Series A Notes Risk Sensitivity:
-- 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected rating of A (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of BBB (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of BBB (high) (sf)

Series B Notes Risk Sensitivity:
-- 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of BB (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of BB (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected rating of BB (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected rating of BB (low) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of B (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of B (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of B (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of B (sf)

For further information on DBRS Morningstar historical default rates published by the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) in a central repository, see:
http://cerep.esma.europa.eu/cerep-web/statistics/defaults.xhtml.

Ratings assigned by DBRS Ratings GmbH are subject to EU and US regulations only.

Lead Analyst: Shalva Beshia, Assistant Vice President
Rating Committee Chair: Alfonso Candelas, Senior Vice President
Initial Rating Date: 23 March 2017

DBRS Ratings GmbH
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60311 Frankfurt am Main Germany

Geschäftsführer: Detlef Scholz
Amtsgericht Frankfurt am Main, HRB 110259

The rating methodologies used in the analysis of this transaction can be found at: http://www.dbrs.com/about/methodologies.

-- Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions
-- Master European Structured Finance Surveillance Methodology
-- Operational Risk Assessment for European Structured Finance Servicers
-- Rating European Consumer and Commercial Asset-Backed Securitisations
-- Interest Rate Stresses for European Structured Finance Transactions

A description of how DBRS Morningstar analyses structured finance transactions and how the methodologies are collectively applied can be found at: http://www.dbrs.com/research/278375.

For more information on this credit or on this industry, visit www.dbrs.com or contact us at info@dbrs.com.