Press Release

DBRS Morningstar Confirms Caixa Económica Montepio Geral Covered Bonds (Obrigações Hipotecárias - Mortgages - CPT) at “A”

Covered Bonds

July 03, 2020

DBRS Ratings Limited (DBRS Morningstar) confirmed its “A” ratings on the Obrigações Hipotecárias (OH; the Portuguese legislative Covered Bonds) issued under the Caixa Económica Montepio Geral (Banco Montepio or the Issuer) CPT Covered Bonds Programme (the Programme). The confirmation follows the completion of a full review of the Programme.

There are five series of OH outstanding under the Programme totalling a nominal amount of EUR 2.30 billion.

The ratings are based on the following analytical considerations:
-- A Covered Bonds Attachment Point (CBAP) of BB. Banco Montepio is the Issuer and Reference Entity for the Programme. Banco Montepio was not assigned a Long Term Critical Obligations Rating nor does DBRS Morningstar consider Portugal a jurisdiction in which Covered Bonds are a particularly important financing tool;
-- A Legal and Structuring Framework (LSF) Assessment of “Adequate” associated with the Programme;
-- A Cover Pool Credit Assessment (CPCA) of A (low), which is the lowest CPCA in line with the LSF-Implied Likelihood (LSF-L);
-- An LSF-L of BBB (high);
-- A two-notch uplift for high recovery prospects;
-- A committed minimum overcollateralisation (OC) of 18%. DBRS Morningstar gives full credit to such commitment in accordance with its principal methodology. Such level is not subject to a haircut as DBRS Morningstar considers it to be persistent based on historically observed levels.

The transaction was analysed using the DBRS Morningstar European Covered Bond Cash Flow tool. The main assumptions focused on the timing of defaults and recoveries of the assets and interest rate stresses.

Everything else being equal, a one-notch downgrade of the CBAP would lead to a one-notch downgrade of the LSF-L, resulting in a one-notch downgrade of the CB rating.

In addition, all else unchanged, the OH ratings would be downgraded if any of the following occurred: (1) the CPCA was downgraded below A (low); (2) the LSF Assessment associated with the Programme was downgraded; or (3) the quality of the cover pool (CP) and the level of OC were no longer sufficient to support a two-notch uplift for high recovery prospects.

As of 31 March 2020, the aggregated outstanding balance of the CP underlying the Issuer’s OH was EUR 2.74 billion, including EUR 2.73 billion of mortgages and EUR 11.9 million of cash. The total amount of liabilities outstanding is EUR 2.30 billion, yielding a current nominal OC ratio of 19.2%. The Issuer has publicly committed to maintain an OC level of 18.0%.

As at March 2020, the CP assets comprised 61,024 residential mortgage loans, with a weighted-average (WA) current unindexed loan-to-value ratio of 50.9%, a WA seasoning of 135 months, and a WA remaining time to maturity of 259 months. The CP is located mainly in Lisbon (36.4% by outstanding balance), Northern Portugal (27.8%), and Central Portugal (15.8%).

The vast majority of the loans in the CP (approximately 93%) are floating rate, while 46% of the OH Series is floating rate, indexed to three-month Euribor. The interest rate mismatch is mitigated by an external interest rate swap on Series 10. The remaining interest rate mismatch has been taken into account in DBRS Morningstar’s analysis.

The DBRS Morningstar-calculated WA life of the mortgage assets is roughly 12 years based on a 0% prepayment rate, which is longer than the 4.0 years of WA life on the OH, not accounting for any maturity extension. This risk is mitigated by the conditional pass-through (CPT) nature of the OH.

All CP assets and CB are denominated in euros. As such, investors are not currently exposed to any foreign-exchange risk.

DBRS Morningstar has assessed the LSF related to the Programme as “Adequate” according to its rating methodology. For more information, please refer to DBRS Morningstar’s commentaries, “DBRS Assigns LSF Assessment to Portuguese Covered Bonds,” “Portuguese Covered Bonds: Legal and Structuring Framework Review” and “DBRS Upgrades Caixa Económica Montepio Geral Covered Bonds to A (high) Upon Restructuring in CPT, Removes UR-D,” which are available at www.dbrsmorningstar.com.

For further information on the Programme, please refer to the rating report at www.dbrsmorningstar.com.

The Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) and the resulting isolation measures have caused an economic contraction, leading to sharp increases in unemployment rates and income reductions for many borrowers. DBRS Morningstar anticipates that payment holidays and delinquencies may arise in the coming months for many cover pools, some meaningfully. The ratings are based on additional analysis and adjustments to expected performance as a result of the global efforts to contain the spread of the coronavirus. In the cover pool analysis of this programme DBRS Morningstar increased the expected default rate for self-employed borrowers and assumed a moderate decline in residential property prices.

On 16 April 2020, the DBRS Morningstar Sovereign group released a set of macroeconomic scenarios for the 2020-22 period in select economies. These scenarios were updated on 1 June 2020. For details see the following commentaries: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/361867/global-macroeconomic-scenarios-june-update and https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/359903/global-macroeconomic-scenarios-application-to-credit-ratings. The DBRS Morningstar analysis considered impacts consistent with the moderate scenario in the referenced reports.

On 24 April 2020, DBRS Morningstar published a commentary outlining how the coronavirus crisis is likely to affect the DBRS Morningstar-rated Covered Bonds in Europe. For more details please see https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/359987/covid-19-the-impact-on-european-covered-bonds and https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/362712/european-structured-finance-covid-19-credit-risk-exposure-roadmap.

For more information regarding rating methodologies and Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), please see the following DBRS Morningstar press release: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/357883.

For more information regarding structured finance rating methodologies and Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), please see the following DBRS Morningstar press release: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/358308.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS
A description of how DBRS Morningstar considers ESG factors within the DBRS Morningstar analytical framework and its methodologies can be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/357792.

Notes:
All figures are in euros unless otherwise noted.

The principal methodology applicable to the rating is: “Rating and Monitoring Covered Bonds“ (27 April 2020).

DBRS Morningstar has applied the principal methodology consistently and conducted a review of the transaction in accordance with the surveillance section of the principal methodology.

A review of the transaction legal documents was not conducted as the legal documents have remained unchanged since the most recent rating action.

Other methodologies referenced in this transaction are listed at the end of this press release.

These may be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies.

For a more detailed discussion of the sovereign risk impact on Structured Finance ratings, please refer to “Appendix C: The Impact of Sovereign Ratings on Other DBRS Credit Ratings” of the “Global Methodology for Rating Sovereign Governments” at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/350410/global-methodology-for-rating-sovereign-governments.

The sources of data and information used for this rating include investor reports and loan-by-loan data on the CP as at 31 March 2020 and static delinquencies data on Banco Montepio’s mortgage book spanning from 2002 to Q1 2020, provided by the Issuer.

DBRS Morningstar did not rely upon third-party due diligence in order to conduct its analysis.

At the time of the initial ratings, DBRS Morningstar was not supplied with third-party assessments. However, this did not impact the rating analysis.

DBRS Morningstar considers the data and information available to it for the purposes of providing these ratings to be of satisfactory quality.

DBRS Morningstar does not audit or independently verify the data or information it receives in connection with the rating process.

The last rating action on this transaction took place on 14 November 2019, when DBRS Morningstar assigned an “A” rating to Series 11 and discontinued its rating on Series 5.

Information regarding DBRS Morningstar ratings, including definitions, policies, and methodologies, is available on www.dbrsmorningstar.com.

For further information on DBRS Morningstar historical default rates published by the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) in a central repository, see: https://cerep.esma.europa.eu/cerep-web/statistics/defaults.xhtml.

Ratings assigned by DBRS Ratings Limited are subject to EU and U.S. regulations only.

Lead Analyst: Roger Bickert, Vice President
Rating Committee Chair: Ketan Thaker, Managing Director
Initial Rating Date: 1 December 2011

DBRS Ratings Limited
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Tel. +44 (0) 20 7855 6600
Registered and incorporated under the laws of England and Wales: Company No. 7139960

The rating methodologies used in the analysis of this transaction can be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies.

A description of how DBRS Morningstar analyses structured finance transactions and how the methodologies are collectively applied can be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/278375.

For more information on this credit or on this industry, visit www.dbrsmorningstar.com or contact us at info@dbrsmorningstar.com.

This press release was amended on 7 January 2021 to correct the dates and links so they reflect the active "Rating and Monitoring Covered Bonds" and "Rating and Monitoring Covered Bonds Addendum: Market Value Spreads" methodologies.

ALL MORNINGSTAR DBRS RATINGS ARE SUBJECT TO DISCLAIMERS AND CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. PLEASE READ THESE DISCLAIMERS AND LIMITATIONS AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REGARDING MORNINGSTAR DBRS RATINGS, INCLUDING DEFINITIONS, POLICIES, RATING SCALES AND METHODOLOGIES.

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