DBRS Morningstar Confirms and Upgrades Ratings on Bumper 9 (NL) Finance B.V.

DBRS Ratings Limited (DBRS Morningstar) took the following rating actions on the bonds issued by Bumper 9 (NL) Finance B.V. (the Issuer):

-- Class A Notes confirmed at AAA (sf)
-- Class B Notes upgraded to AAA (sf) from AA (high) (sf)

The ratings on the Class A Notes and Class B Notes (collectively, the Notes) address the timely payment of interest and ultimate payment of principal on or before the legal final maturity date.

The rating actions follow an annual review of the transaction and are based on the following analytical considerations:

-- Portfolio performance, in terms of delinquencies, defaults, and losses as of the June 2020 payment date.
-- Probability of default (PD), loss given default (LGD), and expected loss assumptions on the remaining receivables.
-- Current available credit enhancement to the notes to cover the expected losses at the AAA (sf) level.
-- Current economic environment and an assessment of sustainable performance, as a result of the Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) pandemic.

Bumper 9 (NL) is a securitisation of auto lease agreements to corporate, small and medium-size enterprises (SME) and public-sector clients in the Netherlands granted by LeasePlan Nederland N.V. (LPNL). The residual value (RV) claims related to the auto leases are securitised. The revolving period ended on 22 August 2018 and the portfolio is currently amortising. The legal final maturity date is on 22 July 2031.

PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE
As of the June 2020 payment date, two- to three-month arrears represented 0.3% of the outstanding portfolio balance, stable since a year ago. As of May 2020, the 90+ delinquency ratio was 0.2%, up from 0.1% a year ago. As of June 2020 payment date, the cumulative default ratio was 0.7%. As of the June 2020 payment date, only two leases representing 0.0% of the outstanding portfolio balance have been granted a payment holiday because of the coronavirus pandemic. Corporate and SME customers represented 75.9% and 22.4% of the outstanding collateral balance, respectively, whereas public-sector clients amounted to 1.6% of the pool balance. The RV receivables associated with the auto leases comprised 63.6% of the current portfolio balance up from 55.3%, a year ago. As of the June 2020 payment date, the portfolio exhibited relatively high borrower concentration, with the top 20 lessees representing 18.6% of the portfolio outstanding balance (up from 17.0% since last annual review), and a significant industry concentration, in the Business Equipment and Services sector (according to DBRS Morningstar’s Industry Classification), which represented 32.6% of the portfolio outstanding balance (down from 34.1% since last annual review). DBRS Morningstar factored this concentration risk into its analysis.

PORTFOLIO ASSUMPTIONS AND KEY DRIVERS
DBRS Morningstar conducted a loan-by-loan analysis of the remaining pool of receivables and increased its base case PD and base case LGD at AAA (sf) to 1.8% and 69.0%, respectively, from 1.2% and 65.2%, respectively, and maintained its RV haircut assumption of 42.0% at AAA (sf).

CREDIT ENHANCEMENT
As of the June 2020 payment date, credit enhancement to the Class A Notes was 55.0%, up from 30.7% a year ago. Credit enhancement to the Class B Notes was 44.0%, up from 24.5% a year ago. Credit enhancement to the Notes consists of the subordination of their respective junior notes.

The transaction benefits from a liquidity reserve, which was funded at closing and covers senior fees and interest on the Notes. As of the June 2020 payment date, the liquidity reserve was at its target level and floor of EUR 2.0 million. The transaction also benefits from a commingling reserve, a set-off reserve, and a maintenance reserve, which are funded upon the breach of the Reserves Trigger Event, which has not occurred at the June 2020 payment date.

ABN AMRO Bank N.V. acts as the account bank for the transaction. Based on the account bank reference rating of ABN AMRO Bank N.V. at AA (low), which is one notch below the DBRS Morningstar public Long-Term Critical Obligations Rating of AA, the downgrade provisions outlined in the transaction documents, and other mitigating factors inherent in the transaction structure, DBRS Morningstar considers the risk arising from the exposure to the account bank to be consistent with the rating assigned to the Class A Notes, as described in DBRS Morningstar's "Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions" methodology.

ABN AMRO Bank N.V. acts as the swap counterparty for the transaction. DBRS Morningstar's Long-Term Critical Obligations Rating of ABN AMRO Bank N.V. at AA is above the First Rating Threshold as described in DBRS Morningstar's "Derivative Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions" methodology.

DBRS Morningstar analysed the transaction structure in Intex DealMaker.

The Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) and the resulting isolation measures have caused an economic contraction, leading to sharp increases in unemployment rates and income reductions for many borrowers. DBRS Morningstar anticipates that delinquencies may arise in the coming months for many ABS transactions, some meaningfully. The ratings are based on additional analysis and adjustments to expected performance as a result of the global efforts to contain the spread of the coronavirus. Given the exposure to corporate and SME borrowers, DBRS Morningstar increased the expected default rate for obligors in certain industries based on their perceived exposure to the adverse disruptions of the coronavirus.

In addition, for this transaction, DBRS Morningstar applied an additional haircut to its base case recovery rate. DBRS Morningstar also conducted additional sensitivity analysis to determine that the transaction benefits from sufficient liquidity support to withstand high levels of payment holidays or payment moratoriums in the portfolio.

On 16 April 2020, the DBRS Morningstar Sovereign group published its outlook on the impact to key economic indicators for the 2020-22 time frame. These scenarios were updated on 1 June 2020. For details, see the following commentaries: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/361867/global-macroeconomic-scenarios-june-update and https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/359903/global-macroeconomic-scenarios-application-to-credit-ratings. DBRS Morningstar’s analysis considered impacts consistent with the moderate scenario in the referenced reports.

On 8 May 2020, DBRS Morningstar published a commentary outlining how the coronavirus crisis is likely to affect DBRS Morningstar-rated ABS transactions in Europe. For more details, please see: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/360734/european-abs-transactions-risk-exposure-to-coronavirus-covid-19-effect and https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/362712/european-structured-finance-covid-19-credit-risk-exposure-roadmap.

On 18 May 2020, DBRS Morningstar published a commentary outlining how the coronavirus crisis is likely to affect DBRS Morningstar-rated transactions in Europe exposed to corporate and SMEs borrowers. For more details please see: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/361098/european-structured-credit-transactions-risk-exposure-to-coronavirus-covid-19-effect and https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/362712/european-structured-finance-covid-19-credit-risk-exposure-roadmap.

For more information regarding rating methodologies and Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), please see the following DBRS Morningstar press release: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/357883.

For more information regarding structured finance rating methodologies and Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), please see the following DBRS Morningstar press release: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/358308.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS
A description of how DBRS Morningstar considers ESG factors within the DBRS Morningstar analytical framework and its methodologies can be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/357792.

Notes:
All figures are in euros unless otherwise noted.

The principal methodology applicable to the ratings is the “Master European Structured Finance Surveillance Methodology” (22 April 2020). DBRS Morningstar has applied the principal methodology consistently and conducted a review of the transaction in accordance with the principal methodology.

A review of the transaction legal documents was not conducted as the legal documents have remained unchanged since the most recent rating action.

Other methodologies referenced in this transaction are listed at the end of this press release. These may be found at: http://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies.

For a more detailed discussion of the sovereign risk impact on Structured Finance ratings, please refer to “Appendix C: The Impact of Sovereign Ratings on Other DBRS Credit Ratings” of the “Global Methodology for Rating Sovereign Governments” at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/350410/global-methodology-for-rating-sovereign-governments.

The sources of data and information used for these ratings include investor reports and loan-level data provided by LeasePlan Corporation N.V.

DBRS Morningstar did not rely upon third-party due diligence in order to conduct its analysis.

At the time of the initial rating, DBRS Morningstar was supplied with third-party assessments. However, this did not impact the rating analysis.

DBRS Morningstar considers the data and information available to it for the purposes of providing these ratings to be of satisfactory quality.

DBRS Morningstar does not audit or independently verify the data or information it receives in connection with the rating process.

The last rating action on this transaction took place on 12 July 2019, when DBRS Morningstar confirmed the rating of the Class A Notes at AAA (sf) and upgraded the rating of the Class B Notes to AA (high) (sf).

The lead analyst responsibilities for this transaction have been transferred to Natalia Coman.

Information regarding DBRS Morningstar ratings, including definitions, policies, and methodologies is available at www.dbrsmorningstar.com.

To assess the impact of changing the transaction parameters on the rating, DBRS Morningstar considered the following stress scenarios as compared with the parameters used to determine the rating (the “Base Case”):

-- DBRS Morningstar expected a lifetime base case PD and LGD for the pool based on a review of the current assets. Adverse changes to asset performance may cause stresses to base case assumptions and therefore have a negative effect on credit ratings.
-- In the case of both transactions, the base case PD, LGD and RV haircut assumptions at the AAA (sf) rating level are: PD of 1.8%, LGD of 69.0% and RV haircut of 42.0%.
-- The Risk Sensitivity overview below illustrates the ratings expected if the PD, LGD and RV haircut increase by a certain percentage over the base case assumption.
For example, if both the PD and LGD increase by 50%, the rating of the Class A Notes would be expected to remain at AAA (sf), assuming no change in the RV haircut. If the RV haircut increases by 50%, the rating of the Class A Notes would be expected to remain at AAA (sf), assuming no change in either the PD or LGD. Furthermore, if both the PD and LGD as well as the RV haircut increase by 50%, the rating of the Class A Notes would be expected to remain at AAA (sf).

Class A Notes Risk Sensitivity:
-- 25% increase in RV haircut, expected rating of AAA (sf)
-- 50% increase in RV haircut, expected rating of AAA (sf)
-- 25% increase in both PD and LGD, expected rating of AAA (sf)
-- 50% increase in both PD and LGD, expected rating of AAA (sf)
-- 25% increase in both PD and LGD and 25% increase in RV haircut, expected rating of AAA (sf)
-- 25% increase in both PD and LGD and 50% increase in RV haircut, expected rating of AAA (sf)
-- 50% increase in both PD and LGD and 25% increase in RV haircut, expected rating of AAA (sf)
-- 50% increase in both PD and LGD and 50% increase in RV haircut, expected rating of AAA (sf)

Class B Notes Risk Sensitivity:
-- 25% increase in RV haircut, expected rating of AAA (sf)
-- 50% increase in RV haircut, expected rating of AAA (sf)
-- 25% increase in both PD and LGD, expected rating of AAA (sf)
-- 50% increase in both PD and LGD, expected rating of AAA (sf)
-- 25% increase in both PD and LGD and 25% increase in RV haircut, expected rating of AAA (sf)
-- 25% increase in both PD and LGD and 50% increase in RV haircut, expected rating of AAA (sf)
-- 50% increase in both PD and LGD and 25% increase in RV haircut, expected rating of AAA (sf)
-- 50% increase in both PD and LGD and 50% increase in RV haircut, expected rating of AA (high) (sf)

For further information on DBRS Morningstar historical default rates published by the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) in a central repository, see:
http://cerep.esma.europa.eu/cerep-web/statistics/defaults.xhtml.

Ratings assigned by DBRS Ratings Limited are subject to EU and U.S. regulations only.

Lead Analyst: Natalia Coman, Senior Analyst
Rating Committee Chair: Alfonso Candelas, Senior Vice President
Initial Rating Date: 26 June 2017

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The rating methodologies used in the analysis of this transaction can be found at: http://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies.

--Master European Structured Finance Surveillance Methodology (22 April 2020) https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/359884/master-european-structured-finance-surveillance-methodology
--Rating European Consumer and Commercial Asset-Backed Securitisations (13 January 2020) https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/355533/rating-european-consumer-and-commercial-asset-backed-securitisations
--Rating CLOs Backed by Loans to European SMEs and SME Diversity Model v2.4 (8 July 2019) https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/347780/rating-clos-backed-by-loans-to-european-smes
--Rating European Structured Finance Transactions Methodology (28 February 2020) https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/357428/rating-european-structured-finance-transactions-methodology
--Interest Rate Stresses for European Structured Finance Transactions (10 October 2019) https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/351557/interest-rate-stresses-for-european-structured-finance-transactions
--Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions (11 September 2019) https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/350234/legal-criteria-for-european-structured-finance-transactions
--Derivative Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions (26 September 2019) https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/350907/derivative-criteria-for-european-structured-finance-transactions
--Operational Risk Assessment for European Structured Finance Servicers (28 February 2020) https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/357429/operational-risk-assessment-for-european-structured-finance-servicers

A description of how DBRS Morningstar analyses structured finance transactions and how the methodologies are collectively applied can be found at http://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/278375.

For more information on this credit or on this industry, visit www.dbrsmorningstar.com or contact us at info@dbrsmorningstar.com.