DBRS Ratings GmbH (DBRS Morningstar) upgraded to AAA (sf) from AA (high) (sf) its rating on the Class B Notes issued by Voba N.6 S.r.l. (the Issuer).
The rating upgrade follows an annual review of the transaction and is based on the following analytical considerations:
-- Portfolio performance, in terms of delinquencies, defaults, and losses as of the May 2020 payment date.
-- Base case probability of default (PD), and recovery rates on the remaining pool of receivables.
-- Current credit enhancement available to the notes to cover the expected losses at their respective rating level.
-- Current economic environment and an assessment of sustainable performance, as a result of the Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) pandemic.
The rating of the Class B Notes addresses the timely payment of interest and ultimate payment of principal on or before the legal final maturity date in November 2060.
The Issuer is a cash flow securitisation collateralised by a portfolio of mortgage and nonmortgage loans to Italian small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), entrepreneurs, artisans, and producer families. The loans were mainly granted by Banca Popolare dell’Alto Adige S.C.p.A. (BPAA), but also by Banca Popolare di Marostica S.C.p.a.r.l. (BPM) and Banca di Treviso S.p.A. (Banca di Treviso), before being merged into BPAA in 2015.
The portfolio is performing within DBRS Morningstar’s expectations. As of May 2020, loans with two to three month in arrears represented 0.05% of the outstanding portfolio balance, which has been stable since May 2019; the 90+ delinquency ratio was at 0.0%, the same as one year ago; and the cumulative default ratio was at 3.1%, slightly up from 2.9% in the same period.
DBRS Morningstar conducted a loan-by-loan analysis on the remaining pool of receivables and updated its portfolio default and recovery assumptions. The annualised weighted-average base case PD was updated to 5.9%, following coronavirus adjustments.
The credit enhancement available to the Class B Notes continues to increase as the transaction deleverages. As of the May 2020 payment date, the credit enhancement available to the Class B Notes was 82.7%, up from 58.3% last year. The increase in the credit enhancement prompted the upgrade of the rating.
The transaction benefits from an amortising cash reserve, which is maintained at 3.0% of the outstanding balance of the Class B Notes (the initial balance was EUR 12.0 million), with a floor of EUR 2.0 million. The cash reserve is available to cover shortfalls relating to senior fees and interest payable on the Class B Notes and is currently at its target level of EUR 2.0 million.
BNP Paribas Securities Services S.C.A., Milan branch (BNP Paribas) acts as the transaction account bank. Based on DBRS Morningstar’s private rating of BNP Paribas, the downgrade provisions outlined in the transaction documents, and other mitigating factors inherent in the transaction structure, DBRS Morningstar considers the risk arising from the exposure to the account bank to be consistent with the rating assigned to the Class B Notes, as described in DBRS Morningstar's "Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions" methodology.
DBRS Morningstar analysed the transaction structure in its proprietary Excel-based cash flow engine.
The coronavirus and the resulting isolation measures have caused an economic contraction, leading to sharp increases in unemployment rates and income reductions for many borrowers. DBRS Morningstar anticipates that payment holidays and delinquencies may arise in the coming months for many SME transactions, some meaningfully. The rating is based on additional analysis and adjustments to expected performance as a result of the global efforts to contain the spread of the coronavirus.
For this transaction, DBRS Morningstar increased the expected default rate for obligors in certain industries based on their perceived exposure to the adverse disruptions of the coronavirus.
The DBRS Morningstar Sovereign group released on 16 April 2020 a set of macroeconomic scenarios for the 2020-22 period in select economies. These scenarios were updated on 1 June 2020. For details, see the following commentaries: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/361867/global-macroeconomic-scenarios-june-update and https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/359903/global-macroeconomic-scenarios-application-to-credit-ratings. The DBRS Morningstar analysis considered impacts consistent with the moderate scenario in the referenced reports.
On 18 May 2020, DBRS Morningstar published a commentary outlining how the coronavirus crisis is likely to affect DBRS Morningstar-rated Structured Credit transactions in Europe. For more details, please see: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/361098/european-structured-credit-transactions-risk-exposure-to-coronavirus-covid-19-effect and https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/362712/european-structured-finance-covid-19-credit-risk-exposure-roadmap.
For more information regarding rating methodologies and Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), please see the following DBRS Morningstar press release: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/357883.
For more information regarding structured finance rating methodologies and Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), please see the following DBRS Morningstar press release: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/358308.
A description of how DBRS Morningstar considers ESG factors within the DBRS Morningstar analytical framework and its methodologies can be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/357792.
All figures are in euros unless otherwise noted.
The principal methodology applicable to the rating is the “Rating CLOs Backed by Loans to European SMEs” (8 July 2019). DBRS Morningstar has applied the principal methodology consistently and conducted a review of the transaction in accordance with the principal methodology.
A review of the transaction legal documents was not conducted as the legal documents have remained unchanged since the most recent rating action.
Other methodologies referenced in this transaction are listed at the end of this press release. These may be found at http://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies.
For a more detailed discussion of the sovereign risk impact on Structured Finance ratings, please refer to “Appendix C: The Impact of Sovereign Ratings on Other DBRS Morningstar Credit Ratings” of the “Rating Sovereign Governments” methodology at: : https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/350410/global-methodology-for-rating-sovereign-governments.
The sources of data and information used for this rating include investor reports provided by Securitisation Services S.p.A., and loan-level data provided by the European DataWarehouse GmbH.
DBRS Morningstar did not rely upon third-party due diligence in order to conduct its analysis.
At the time of the initial rating, DBRS Morningstar was supplied with third-party assessments. However, this did not impact the rating analysis.
DBRS Morningstar considers the data and information available to it for the purposes of providing this rating to be of satisfactory quality.
DBRS Morningstar does not audit or independently verify the data or information it receives in connection with the rating process.
The last rating action on this transaction took place on 23 March 2020, when DBRS Morningstar discontinued its rating on the Class A2 Notes, following its full repayment on the 27 February 2020 payment date. Previously, on 19 July 2019, DBRS Morningstar confirmed its ratings on the Class A2 and Class B Notes at AAA (sf) and AA (high) (sf), respectively.
Information regarding DBRS Morningstar ratings, including definitions, policies, and methodologies is available at www.dbrsmorningstar.com.
To assess the impact of changing the transaction parameters on the rating, DBRS Morningstar considered the following stress scenarios as compared with the parameters used to determine the rating (the Base Case):
-- PD Rates used: The annualised weighted-average PD was updated to 5.9%, based on a PD of 3.9% to mortgage loans originated by BPAA, 2.5% to nonmortgage loans originated by BPAA, 8.0% to loans originated by BPM and Banca di Treviso, 22.3% to the top borrower of the portfolio, the coronavirus-adjustments, and a 10% increase of the base case and a 20% increase of the base case PD.
-- Recovery Rates used: Base case recovery rates of 48.5% at the AAA (sf) stress level, a 10% and 20% decrease in the base case recovery rates.
For the Class B Notes, DBRS Morningstar concluded that a hypothetical increase of the base case PD by 20%, ceteris paribus, would lead to a confirmation of the Class B Notes at AAA (sf), and a hypothetical decrease of the recovery rate by 20%, ceteris paribus, which would lead to a confirmation of the Class B Notes at AAA (sf). A scenario combining both an increase in the base case PD by 10% and a decrease in the base case recovery rate by 10%, ceteris paribus, would also lead to a confirmation of the Class B Notes at AAA (sf).
For further information on DBRS Morningstar historical default rates published by the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) in a central repository, see:
Ratings assigned by DBRS Ratings GmbH are subject to EU and US regulations only.
Lead Analyst: Shalva Beshia, Assistant Vice President
Rating Committee Chair: Gareth Levington, Managing Director
Initial Rating Date: 22 September 2016
DBRS Ratings GmbH
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Tel. +49 (69) 8088 3500
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The rating methodologies used in the analysis of this transaction can be found at: http://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies.
-- Rating CLOs Backed by Loans to European SMEs (8 July 2019) and SME Diversity Model v.2.4,0.0,
-- Rating CLOs and CDOs of Large Corporate Credit (28 February 2020),
-- Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions (11 September 2019),
-- Master European Structured Finance Surveillance Methodology (22 April 2020),
-- Operational Risk Assessment for European Structured Finance Servicers (28 February 2020),
-- Master European Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities Rating Methodology and Jurisdictional Addenda (14 July 2020),https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/363998/master-european-residential-mortgage-backed-securities-rating-methodology-and-jurisdictional-addenda
-- Interest Rate Stresses for European Structured Finance Transactions (10 October 2019),
-- Cash Flow Assumptions for Corporate Credit Securitizations (28 February 2020),
A description of how DBRS Morningstar analyses structured finance transactions and how the methodologies are collectively applied can be found at http://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/278375.
For more information on this credit or on this industry, visit www.dbrsmorningstar.com or contact us at email@example.com.