DBRS Morningstar: Global Macroeconomic Scenarios: July Update

DBRS Morningstar released a commentary updating its global macroeconomic scenarios.

Compared to our last update, published on June 1, the scenarios have changed only modestly. Negative economic data and deteriorating forecasts have been reflected in additional adjustments to the moderate scenarios for the U.K., France, Italy and Spain. Relatively positive economic data in several Nordic countries has resulted in some modest upward adjustments to growth and unemployment in the moderate scenario. For many other countries, economic data has been broadly in line with expectations, with some positive data surprises offset by a global rise in cases and a renewed tightening of restrictions on economic activity.

The coming weeks and months will begin to settle questions regarding the ability of major economies to successfully reopen without a resurgence of cases. “The signs thus far are not particularly reassuring,” notes Thomas Torgerson, Co-Head of Sovereign Ratings at DBRS Morningstar. “However, there is scope for many countries and regions to rely on more targeted policy responses and avoid broad restrictions on activity.”

There will also be some uncertainty regarding the impact of any resurgence - particularly as consumers and businesses find better and more targeted ways to mitigate and cope with the fear of COVID-19 - and begin to make other spending decisions that could offset the reduced expenditure on travel and entertainment. As before, we believe a full recovery will ultimately hinge on whether governments and medical experts identify treatment and vaccine options that allow those fears to fade away.

The scenarios will be updated again by early September.

Notes:
The commentary is available at www.dbrsmorningstar.com.

For more information on our views on the global macroeconomic outlook and sovereign ratings, visit www.dbrsmorningstar.com or contact us at info@dbrsmorningstar.com.

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