DBRS Morningstar: Global Macroeconomic Scenarios: September Update

DBRS Morningstar released a commentary updating its global macroeconomic scenarios.

Compared to our last update, published on July 22, several of the scenarios have been revised. For a few economies, particularly the UK, France, Belgium, and parts of Southern Europe, the downturn has been worse than expected and our moderate and adverse scenarios have been adjusted downward for 2020. If economic recoveries continue broadly in line with the assumptions in our moderate scenario, DBRS Morningstar expects these economies to experience commensurately larger rebounds in activity during 2021.

In most economies, and particularly in Europe, formal measures of unemployment remain low. However, unemployment alone does not depict the full impact on the labor market. There has been a significant increase in non-participation, with a large number of workers simply dropping out of the labor force. Companies have also cut hours dramatically but, with the assistance of government support programs, have been able to maintain their current workforces at reduced salaries. This policy approach will likely imply some rise in unemployment from historically low levels across Europe as government support programs are gradually withdrawn.

“The macroeconomic data points to a gradual recovery and provides a useful reminder of the resilience of the major world economies,” says Thomas Torgerson, Co-Head of Sovereign Ratings at DBRS Morningstar. “Nonetheless, weak confidence and limited investment, combined with continued weak demand in entertainment, travel and hospitality industries, may slow the recovery.

The scenarios will be updated again by late October.

Notes:
The commentary is available at www.dbrsmorningstar.com.

For more information on our views on the global macroeconomic outlook and sovereign ratings, visit www.dbrsmorningstar.com or contact us at info@dbrsmorningstar.com.

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