DBRS Ratings GmbH (DBRS Morningstar) confirmed the rating on the Class A Notes issued by Auto ABS Spanish Loans 2018-1 F.T. (the Issuer) at AAA (sf).
The rating on the Class A Notes addresses the timely payment of interest and ultimate payment of principal on or before the legal final maturity date in June 2029.
The confirmation follows an annual review of the transaction and is based on the following analytical considerations:
-- Portfolio performance, in terms of delinquencies and defaults, as of the August 2020 payment date.
-- Probability of default (PD), loss given default (LGD), and expected loss assumptions on the remaining receivables.
-- Current available credit enhancement to the notes to cover the expected losses at the AAA (sf) rating level.
-- Current economic environment and an assessment of sustainable performance, as a result of the Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) pandemic.
The Issuer is a securitisation of Spanish auto loan receivables originated and serviced by PSA Financial Services Spain EFC S.A., a joint venture equally held by Banque PSA Finance and Santander Consumer Finance SA (SCF). The transaction closed in September 2018 and had an 18-month revolving period that ended in March 2020, when the Class A Notes started amortising.
As of August 2020 payment date, loans that were one to two months and two to three months delinquent represented 0.33% and 0.10% of the portfolio balance, respectively, while loans more than three months delinquent represented 0.07%. Gross cumulative defaults amounted to 0.16% of the aggregate original and subsequent portfolios, 32.4% of which have been recovered.
PORTFOLIO ASSUMPTIONS AND KEY DRIVERS
DBRS Morningstar conducted a loan-by-loan review of the remaining pool of receivables and has updated its base case PD and LGD assumptions to 2.7% and 54.8%, respectively. The analysis is based on the current portfolio composition following the end of the revolving period in March 2020.
The subordination of the Class B Notes and the cash reserve provide credit enhancement to the Class A Notes.
As of the August 2020 payment date, credit enhancement to the Class A Notes was 10.3%, up from 8.6% as of August 2019.
The transaction benefits from a cash reserve available to cover senior expenses and interest shortfalls on the Class A Notes. Additionally, the cash reserve can be used to offset any amounts debited to the principal deficiency ledger, providing credit support to the Class A Notes.
This reserve was funded at closing to EUR 5.3 million and, following the end of the revolving period, it is permitted to reduce in line with the Class A and Class B notes, subject to a floor. As of the August 2020 payment date, it was at its required balance of EUR 5.3 million.
SCF acts as the account bank for the transaction. Based on the DBRS Morningstar private rating of SCF, the downgrade provisions outlined in the transaction documents, and other mitigating factors inherent in the transaction structure, DBRS Morningstar considers the risk arising from the exposure to the account bank to be consistent with the rating assigned to the Class A Notes, as described in DBRS Morningstar's "Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions" methodology.
Banco Santander SA acts as the swap counterparty for the transaction. DBRS Morningstar's Long-Term Critical Obligations Rating (COR) of Banco Santander SA at AA (low) is above the First Rating Threshold as described in DBRS Morningstar's "Derivative Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions" methodology.
The transaction structure was analysed in Intex DealMaker.
The Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) and the resulting isolation measures have caused an economic contraction, leading to sharp increases in unemployment rates and income reductions for many borrowers. DBRS Morningstar anticipates that delinquencies may arise in the coming months for many ABS transactions, some meaningfully. The ratings are based on additional analysis and adjustments to expected performance as a result of the global efforts to contain the spread of the coronavirus. For this transaction, DBRS Morningstar applied an additional haircut to its base case recovery rate and conducted additional sensitivity analysis to determine that the transaction benefits from sufficient liquidity support to withstand potentially high payment holiday levels in the portfolio. As of 31 July 2020, around 1.6% of the current portfolio balance benefits from a payment moratorium.
On 16 April 2020, the DBRS Morningstar Sovereign group released a set of macroeconomic scenarios for the 2020-22 period in select economies. These scenarios were last updated on 10 September 2020. For details, see the following commentaries: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/366542/global-macroeconomic-scenarios-september-update and https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/359903/global-macroeconomic-scenarios-application-to-credit-ratings. DBRS Morningstar’s analysis considered impacts consistent with the moderate scenario in the referenced reports.
On 8 May 2020, DBRS Morningstar published a commentary outlining how the coronavirus crisis is likely to affect DBRS Morningstar-rated ABS transactions in Europe. For more details, please see:
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/360734/european-abs-transactions-risk-exposure-to-coronavirus-covid-19-effect and https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/362712/european-structured-finance-covid-19-credit-risk-exposure-roadmap.
For more information regarding rating methodologies and Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), please see the following DBRS Morningstar press release: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/357883.
For more information regarding structured finance rating methodologies and Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), please see the following DBRS Morningstar press release: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/358308.
A description of how DBRS Morningstar considers ESG factors within the DBRS Morningstar analytical framework and its methodologies can be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/357792.
All figures are in euros unless otherwise noted.
The principal methodology applicable to the rating is: “Master European Structured Finance Surveillance Methodology” (22 April 2020).
DBRS Morningstar has applied the principal methodology consistently and conducted a review of the transaction in accordance with the principal methodology.
A review of the transaction legal documents was not conducted as the legal documents have remained unchanged since the most recent rating action.
Other methodologies referenced in this transaction are listed at the end of this press release. These may be found at: http://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies.
For a more detailed discussion of the sovereign risk impact on Structured Finance ratings, please refer to “Appendix C: The Impact of Sovereign Ratings on Other DBRS Morningstar Credit Ratings” of the “Global Methodology for Rating Sovereign Governments” at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/364527/global-methodology-for-rating-sovereign-governments.
The sources of data and information used for this rating include transaction reports and payment holiday information provided by Titulización de Activos, S.G.F.T., S.A (the Management Company) and loan-level data provided by the European DataWarehouse GmbH.
DBRS Morningstar did not rely upon third-party due diligence in order to conduct its analysis.
At the time of the initial rating, DBRS Morningstar was supplied with third-party assessments. However, this did not impact the rating analysis.
DBRS Morningstar considers the data and information available to it for the purposes of providing this rating to be of satisfactory quality.
DBRS Morningstar does not audit or independently verify the data or information it receives in connection with the rating process.
The last rating action on this transaction took place on 16 September 2019, when DBRS Morningstar confirmed its rating on the Class A Notes at AAA (sf).
Information regarding DBRS Morningstar ratings, including definitions, policies, and methodologies is available at www.dbrsmorningstar.com.
To assess the impact of changing the transaction parameters on the rating, DBRS Morningstar considered the following stress scenarios as compared with the parameters used to determine the rating (the base case):
-- DBRS Morningstar expected a lifetime base case PD and LGD for the pool based on a review of the current assets. Adverse changes to asset performance may cause stresses to base case assumptions and therefore have a negative effect on credit ratings.
-- The base case PD and LGD of the current pool of loans for the Issuer are 2.7% and 54.8%, respectively.
-- The Risk Sensitivity overview below illustrates the ratings expected if the PD and LGD increase by a certain percentage over the base case assumption.
Class A Notes Risk Sensitivity:
-- 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of AAA (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of AAA (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected rating of AAA (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected rating of AA (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (sf)
For further information on DBRS Morningstar historical default rates published by the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) in a central repository, see:
Ratings assigned by DBRS Ratings GmbH are subject to EU and U.S. regulations only.
Lead Analyst: Petter Wettestad, Senior Analyst
Rating Committee Chair: Alfonso Candelas, Senior Vice President
Initial Rating Date: 20 September 2018
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The rating methodologies used in the analysis of this transaction can be found at: http://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies.
-- Master European Structured Finance Surveillance Methodology (22 April 2020), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/359884/master-european-structured-finance-surveillance-methodology.
-- Rating European Structured Finance Transactions Methodology (21 July 2020),
-- Rating European Consumer and Commercial Asset-Backed Securitisations (3 September 2020), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/366294/rating-european-consumer-and-commercial-asset-backed-securitisations.
-- Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions (11 September 2019),
-- Derivative Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions (26 September 2019), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/350907/derivative-criteria-for-european-structured-finance-transactions.
-- Operational Risk Assessment for European Structured Finance Servicers (28 February 2020), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/357429/operational-risk-assessment-for-european-structured-finance-servicers.
-- Operational Risk Assessment for European Structured Finance Originators (28 February 2020), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/357430/operational-risk-assessment-for-european-structured-finance-originators.
-- Interest Rate Stresses for European Structured Finance Transactions (10 October 2019), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/351557/interest-rate-stresses-for-european-structured-finance-transactions.
A description of how DBRS Morningstar analyses structured finance transactions and how the methodologies are collectively applied can be found at http://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/278375.
For more information on this credit or on this industry, visit www.dbrsmorningstar.com or contact us at email@example.com.