Press Release

DBRS Morningstar Confirms Ratings of Dolphin Master Issuer B.V.

RMBS

October 01, 2020

DBRS Ratings Limited (DBRS Morningstar) confirmed its ratings of the notes issued by Dolphin Master Issuer B.V. (Dolphin or the Issuer) as follows:

-- Series 2010-1 Class A3, Series 2010-1 Class A4, Series 2015-1 Class A3, Series 2015-1 Class A4, Series 2015-3 Class A, Series 2016-1 Class A2, Series 2016-1 Class A3, and Series 2016-1 Class A4 (together, the Class A Notes) at AAA (sf)
-- Series 2017-1 Class B (Class B Notes) at AA (sf)
-- Series 2017-1 Class C (Class C Notes) at A (sf)

DBRS Morningstar also discontinued its ratings of the following notes following their redemption in full on 28 September 2020:

-- EUR 2,000,000,000 Series 2015-1 Class A2
-- EUR 2,000,000,000 Series 2016-1 Class A1

Prior to their redemption in full, the aforementioned notes were rated AAA (sf).

The ratings of the Notes address the timely payment of interest and ultimate payment of principal on or before the legal final maturity date in September 2099.

The confirmations follow an annual review of the transaction and are based on the following analytical considerations:
-- Portfolio performance, in terms of delinquencies, defaults and losses, as of the June 2020 payment date.
-- Portfolio default rate (PD), loss given default (LGD), and expected loss assumptions on the receivables.
-- Current and minimum levels of credit enhancement to the notes to cover the expected losses at their respective rating levels.
-- Current economic environment and an assessment of sustainable performance, as a result of the Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) pandemic.
-- No revolving termination events have occurred.

Dolphin is a fully revolving continuous-issuance programme established in August 2007 and backed by prime Dutch mortgage loans, where ABN AMRO Bank (ABN AMRO) is the originator alongside various of its subsidiaries and where ABN AMRO Hypotheken Groep B.V., another subsidiary, is the servicer of the loans in the programme.

The notes issued by Dolphin can be soft-bullet or pass-through notes that amortise sequentially. The notes can be floating rate or fixed rate, denominated in euros or other currencies. Currently the Notes are soft bullet, bear a floating interest rate and are denominated in euros.

PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE
As of June 2020, loans two to three months in arrears represented 0.1% of the outstanding portfolio balance and the 90+ delinquency ratio was 0.2%, both stable since June 2019. As of June 2020, the cumulative default ratio was 2.1%.

PORTFOLIO ASSUMPTIONS AND KEY DRIVERS
DBRS Morningstar conducted an analysis of the receivables and has updated its base case PD and LGD assumptions at 4.9% and 14.6%, respectively. The assumptions continue to be based on the worst-case portfolio composition.

CREDIT ENHANCEMENT
Credit enhancement to the Class A, Class B, and Class C notes is 12.0%, 8.8%, and 4.8%, respectively. Credit enhancement is provided by subordination of the junior notes and a reserve fund. The current levels of subordination are above the minimum levels of subordination of 7.9%, 5.7%, and 3.1% to the Class A, Class B, and Class C Notes, respectively.

The transaction benefits from a nonamortising reserve fund, currently at its target amount of EUR 250 million, providing liquidity as well as credit support (via the principal deficiency ledgers) to the Notes.

ABN AMRO acts as the issuer account bank for the transaction. Based on the account bank reference rating of ABN AMRO at AA (low), one notch below the DBRS Morningstar Long-Term Critical Obligations Rating (COR) of AA, the downgrade provisions outlined in the transaction documents, and other mitigating factors inherent in the transaction structure, DBRS Morningstar considers the risk arising from the exposure to the account bank to be consistent with the rating assigned to the Class A Notes, as described in DBRS Morningstar's "Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions" methodology.

ABN AMRO also acts as the swap counterparty for the transaction. DBRS Morningstar’s Long-Term COR of ABN AMRO at AA is above the First Rating Threshold, given the rating assigned to the Class A Notes, as described in DBRS Morningstar’s “Derivative Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions” methodology.

DBRS Morningstar analysed the transaction structure in Intex.

The Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) and the resulting isolation measures have caused an economic contraction, leading to sharp increases in unemployment rates and income reductions for many borrowers. DBRS Morningstar anticipates that delinquencies may arise in the coming months for many RMBS transactions, some meaningfully. The ratings are based on additional analysis and adjustments to expected performance as a result of the global efforts to contain the spread of the coronavirus. For this transaction, DBRS Morningstar assessed an increase in the expected default rate for self-employed borrowers in the current portfolio and a moderate reduction in residential property values. DBRS Morningstar also conducted additional sensitivity analysis to determine that the transaction benefits from sufficient liquidity support to withstand high levels of payment holidays in the portfolio.

The DBRS Morningstar Sovereign group released on 16 April 2020 a set of macroeconomic scenarios for the 2020-22 period in select economies. These scenarios were last updated on 10 September 2020. For details see the following commentaries https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/366542/global-macroeconomic-scenarios-september-update and https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/359903/global-macroeconomic-scenarios-application-to-credit-ratings. DBRS Morningstar analysis considered impacts consistent with the moderate scenario in the referenced reports.

On 5 May 2020, DBRS Morningstar published a commentary outlining how the coronavirus crisis is likely to affect DBRS Morningstar-rated RMBS transactions in Europe. For more details please see https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/360599/european-rmbs-transactions-risk-exposure-to-coronavirus-covid-19-effect and https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/362712/european-structured-finance-covid-19-credit-risk-exposure-roadmap.

For more information regarding rating methodologies and Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), please see the following DBRS Morningstar press release: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/357883.

For more information regarding structured finance rating methodologies and Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), please see the following DBRS Morningstar press release: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/358308.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS
A description of how DBRS Morningstar considers ESG factors within the DBRS Morningstar analytical framework and its methodologies can be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/357792.

Notes:
All figures are in euros unless otherwise noted.

The principal methodology applicable to the ratings is the “Master European Structured Finance Surveillance Methodology” (22 April 2020). DBRS Morningstar has applied the principal methodology consistently and conducted a review of the transaction in accordance with the principal methodology.

An asset and a cash flow analysis were both conducted. Due to the inclusion of a revolving period in the transaction, the analysis continues to be based on the worst-case replenishment criteria set forth in the transaction legal documents.

A review of the transaction legal documents was not conducted as the legal documents have remained unchanged since the most recent rating action.

Other methodologies referenced in this transaction are listed at the end of this press release. These may be found at: http://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies.

For a more detailed discussion of the sovereign risk impact on Structured Finance ratings, please refer to “Appendix C: The Impact of Sovereign Ratings on Other DBRS Morningstar Credit Ratings” of the “Global Methodology for Rating Sovereign Governments” at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/364527/global-methodology-for-rating-sovereign-governments.

The sources of data and information used for these ratings include investor reports provided by ABN AMRO and loan-level data provided by the European DataWarehouse GmbH.

DBRS did not rely upon third-party due diligence in order to conduct its analysis.

At the time of the initial rating, DBRS Morningstar was not supplied with third-party assessments. However, this did not impact the rating analysis.

DBRS Morningstar considers the data and information available to it for the purposes of providing these ratings to be of satisfactory quality.

DBRS Morningstar does not audit or independently verify the data or information it receives in connection with the rating process.

The last rating action on this transaction took place on 1 October 2019, when DBRS Morningstar confirmed its ratings of the outstanding series and discontinued its ratings on various series which were redeemed in full.

The lead analyst responsibilities for this transaction have been transferred to Andrew Lynch.

Information regarding DBRS Morningstar ratings, including definitions, policies and methodologies is available at www.dbrsmorningstar.com.

To assess the impact of changing the transaction parameters on the rating, DBRS Morningstar considered the following stress scenarios as compared with the parameters used to determine the rating (the Base Case):

-- DBRS Morningstar expected a lifetime base case PD and LGD for the pool based on a review of the assets. Adverse changes to asset performance may cause stresses to base case assumptions and therefore have a negative effect on credit ratings.
-- The base case PD and LGD of the worst-case portfolio for the Issuer are 4.9% and 14.6%, respectively.
-- The risk sensitivity overview below illustrates the ratings expected if the PD and LGD increase by a certain percentage over the base case assumption.

For example, if the LGD increases to 50%, the rating on the Class A Notes would be expected to fall at AA (low) (sf), assuming no change in the PD. If the PD increases by 50%, the rating on the Class A Notes would be expected to fall at AA (sf), assuming no change in the LGD. Furthermore, if both the PD and the LGD increase by 50%, the rating on the Class A Notes would be expected to be at A (sf).

Class A Notes risk sensitivity:
-- 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (low) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected rating of AA (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected rating of AA (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (sf)

Class B Notes risk sensitivity:
-- 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected rating of AA (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (low) (sf)

Class C Notes risk sensitivity:
-- 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of BBB (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of BBB (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected rating of BBB (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected rating of BBB (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of BBB (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of BBB (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of BB (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of BB (high) (sf)

For further information on DBRS Morningstar historical default rates published by the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) in a central repository, see:
http://cerep.esma.europa.eu/cerep-web/statistics/defaults.xhtml.

Ratings assigned by DBRS Ratings Limited are subject to EU and U.S. regulations only.

Lead Analyst: Andrew Lynch, Vice President
Rating Committee Chair: Alfonso Candelas, Senior Vice President
Initial Rating Date: 28 September 2007

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The rating methodologies used in the analysis of this transaction can be found at: http://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies.

A description of how DBRS Morningstar analyses structured finance transactions and how the methodologies are collectively applied can be found at http://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/278375.

For more information on this credit or on this industry, visit www.dbrsmorningstar.com or contact us at info@dbrsmorningstar.com.

ALL MORNINGSTAR DBRS RATINGS ARE SUBJECT TO DISCLAIMERS AND CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. PLEASE READ THESE DISCLAIMERS AND LIMITATIONS AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REGARDING MORNINGSTAR DBRS RATINGS, INCLUDING DEFINITIONS, POLICIES, RATING SCALES AND METHODOLOGIES.

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