DBRS Morningstar Takes Rating Actions on 2019 Popolare Bari RMBS S.r.l.

DBRS Ratings GmbH (DBRS Morningstar) took the following rating actions on the notes issued by 2019 Popolare Bari RMBS S.r.l. (the Issuer):

-- Class A1 Notes confirmed at AA (high) (sf)
-- Class A2 Notes confirmed at A (high) (sf)
-- Class B Notes upgraded to A (low) (sf) from BBB (high) (sf)

The rating on the Class A1 Notes addresses the timely payment of interest and the ultimate payment of principal on or before the final maturity date in May 2069. The ratings on the Class A2 and Class B Notes address the ultimate payment of interest and principal on or before the final maturity date.

The rating actions follow an annual review of the transaction and are based on the following analytical considerations:

-- Portfolio performance, in terms of delinquencies, defaults, and losses as of the August 2020 payment date;
-- Probability of default (PD), loss given default (LGD), and expected loss assumptions on the remaining receivables;
-- Current available credit enhancement to the notes to cover the expected losses at their respective rating levels;
-- Current economic environment and an assessment of sustainable performance, as a result of the Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) pandemic.

2019 Popolare Bari RMBS S.r.l. is a securitisation of Italian prime residential mortgage loans originated and serviced by Banca Popolare di Bari S.c.p.a. (BPB) and Cassa di Risparmio di Orvieto S.p.A. (CRO). BPB is the holding company of Banca Popolare di Bari group, and CRO is one of its subsidiaries. BPB also acts as master servicer in the transaction, while Zenith Services S.p.A. has been appointed as backup servicer.

The Bank of Italy placed BPB under special administration on 13 December 2019, which constitutes as a servicer termination event according to the transaction documents. As of the date of this press release, no waiver of such breach has been signed by the transaction parties. Nevertheless, BPB continues to service the portfolio with no disruptions observed so far. DBRS Morningstar believes that the transaction benefits from features that are considered to adequately mitigate risks arising from a potential servicing disruption, but continues to closely monitor the situation.

On 29 June 2020, BPB’s shareholders approved a plan to transform the Italian cooperative bank into a joint stock company and raise new capital. The capital increase was jointly subscribed by state-owned Banca del Mezzogiorno-Mediocredito Centrale (MCC) and by the Fondo Interbancario di Tutela dei Depositi (FITD), which is the depositor protection fund backed by Italian banks. MCC is currently the major shareholder of BPB, with 97% of its share capital.

Another extraordinary shareholder meeting has been called for 15 October 2020, with the purpose of nominating the components of the new Board of Directors as well as the new President. The nomination will eventually terminate the special administration.

PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE

As of the July 2020 cut-off, loans that were two- to three-months in arrears represented 1.5% of the outstanding portfolio balance, while the 90+ delinquency ratio was 3.9%. The servicer has not reported any defaulted loans to date. Additionally, 0.3% of the loans by outstanding portfolio balance, or EUR 2.0 million, were identified as being unlikely to pay (“inadempienze probabili”) in the servicer report.

PORTFOLIO ASSUMPTIONS AND KEY DRIVERS

DBRS Morningstar conducted a loan-by-loan analysis of the remaining pool of receivables and has updated its base case PD and LGD assumptions to 8.4% and 8.8%, respectively.

CREDIT ENHANCEMENT

Ovecollateralisation of the outstanding collateral portfolio provides credit enhancement to the rated notes. As of the August 2020 payment date, credit enhancement to the Class A1, Class A2, and Class B Notes was 23.1%, 19.7%, and 15.3%, respectively, up from 19.0%, 16.0% and 12.0%, respectively, at transaction closing.

The cash reserve provides liquidity support to the Class A1 Notes and is available to cover shortfalls on senior fees, expenses, swap payments, and interest coupons exclusively for this tranche. The reserve is nonamortising, currently at its target level of EUR 15.0 million (or 2.25% of the Class A1 and Class A2 Notes initial balance), and will be released upon Class A1 Notes full redemption.

BNP Paribas Securities Services, Milan branch acts as the account bank for the transaction. Based on the private rating of the account bank, the downgrade provisions outlined in the transaction documents, and structural mitigants inherent in the transaction structures, DBRS Morningstar considers the risk arising from the exposure to the account bank to be consistent with the ratings assigned to the notes, as described in DBRS Morningstar's "Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions" methodology.

An interest rate swap is in place to hedge fixed-floating interest rate risk, with NatWest Markets Plc acting as the swap counterparty. Based on its Long Term Critical Obligations Rating rating of “A” and on the collateral posting provisions included in the documentation, DBRS Morningstar considers the risk arising from the swap counterparty to be consistent with the ratings assigned to the notes, in accordance with its “Derivative Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions” methodology.

DBRS Morningstar analysed the transaction structure in Intex DealMaker.

The Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) and the resulting isolation measures have caused an economic contraction, leading to sharp increases in unemployment rates and income reductions for many borrowers. DBRS Morningstar anticipates that delinquencies may arise in the coming months for many RMBS transactions, some meaningfully. The ratings are based on additional analysis and adjustments to expected performance as a result of the global efforts to contain the spread of the coronavirus.

For this transaction, DBRS Morningstar increased the expected default rate for self-employed borrowers and assumed a moderate decline in residential property prices. In addition, DBRS Morningstar conducted additional sensitivity analysis to determine that the transaction benefits from sufficient liquidity support to withstand potentially high payment holiday levels in the portfolio. As of 31 July 2020, around 7.0% of the current portfolio balance benefitted from a payment moratorium.

The DBRS Morningstar Sovereign group released on 16 April 2020 a set of macroeconomic scenarios for the 2020-22 period in select economies. These scenarios were last updated on 10 September 2020. For details see the following commentaries:
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/366543/dbrs-morningstar-global-macroeconomic-scenarios-september-update and https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/359903/global-macroeconomic-scenarios-application-to-credit-ratings. The DBRS Morningstar analysis considered impacts consistent with the moderate scenario in the referenced reports.

On 5 May 2020, DBRS Morningstar published a commentary outlining how the coronavirus is likely to affect the DBRS Morningstar-rated RMBS transactions in Europe, for more details please see: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/360599/european-rmbs-transactions-risk-exposure-to-coronavirus-covid-19-effect and https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/362712/european-structured-finance-covid-19-credit-risk-exposure-roadmap.

For more information regarding rating methodologies and Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), please see the following DBRS Morningstar press release: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/357883.

For more information regarding structured finance rating methodologies and Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), please see the following DBRS Morningstar press release: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/358308.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS

A description of how DBRS Morningstar considers ESG factors within the DBRS Morningstar analytical framework and its methodologies can be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/357792.

Notes:

All figures are in euros unless otherwise noted.

The principal methodology applicable to the ratings is the “Master European Structured Finance Surveillance Methodology” (22 April 2020).

DBRS Morningstar has applied the principal methodology consistently and conducted a review of the transaction in accordance with the principal methodology.

A review of the transaction legal documents was not conducted as the legal documents have remained unchanged since the most recent rating action.

Other methodologies referenced in this transaction are listed at the end of this press release. These may be found at: http://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies.

For a more detailed discussion of the sovereign risk impact on Structured Finance ratings, please refer to “Appendix C: The Impact of Sovereign Ratings on Other DBRS Morningstar Credit Ratings” of the “Global Methodology for Rating Sovereign Governments” at:
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/364527/global-methodology-for-rating-sovereign-governments

The sources of data and information used for these ratings include investor reports provided by Securitisation Services S.p.A., servicer reports and additional information provided by BPB and loan-level data provided by the European DataWarehouse GmbH.

DBRS Morningstar did not rely upon third-party due diligence to conduct its analysis.

At the time of the initial rating, DBRS Morningstar was supplied with third-party assessments. However, this did not impact the rating analysis.

DBRS Morningstar considers the data and information available to it for the purposes of providing these ratings to be of satisfactory quality.

DBRS Morningstar does not audit or independently verify the data or information it receives in connection with the rating process.

This is the first rating action on this transaction since the initial rating date in October 2019.

The lead analyst responsibilities for this transaction have been transferred to Daniele Canestrari.
Information regarding DBRS Morningstar ratings, including definitions, policies and methodologies is available at www.dbrsmorningstar.com.

To assess the impact of changing the transaction parameters on the rating, DBRS Morningstar considered the following stress scenarios as compared with the parameters used to determine the rating (the Base Case):

-- DBRS Morningstar expected a lifetime base case PD and LGD for the pool based on a review of the current assets. Adverse changes to asset performance may cause stresses to base case assumptions and therefore have a negative effect on credit ratings.

-- The base case PD and LGD of the current pool of loans for the Issuer are 8.4% and 8.8%, respectively.

-- The Risk Sensitivity overview below illustrates the ratings expected if the PD and LGD increase by a certain percentage over the base case assumption. Taking the Class A1 Notes as example, if the LGD increases by 50%, the rating of the Class A Notes would be expected to remain at AA (high) (sf), assuming no change in the PD. If the PD increases by 50%, the rating of the Class A Notes would be expected to fall to AA (sf), assuming no change in the LGD. Furthermore, if both the PD and LGD increase by 50%, the rating of the Class A Notes would be expected to fall to AA (sf).

Class A1 Notes Risk Sensitivity:

-- 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected rating of AA (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected rating of AA (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (sf)

Class A2 Notes Risk Sensitivity:

-- 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (high) (sf)

Class B Notes Risk Sensitivity:

-- 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (low) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected rating of A (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected rating of A (low) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (low) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (low) (sf)

For further information on DBRS Morningstar historical default rates published by the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) in a central repository, see:
http://cerep.esma.europa.eu/cerep-web/statistics/defaults.xhtml.

Ratings assigned by DBRS Ratings GmbH are subject to EU and U.S. regulations only.

Lead Analyst: Daniele Canestrari, Senior Analyst
Rating Committee Chair: Alfonso Candelas, Senior Vice President
Initial Rating Date: 15 October 2019

DBRS Ratings GmbH
Neue Mainzer Straße 75
60311 Frankfurt am Main – Deutschland
Tel. +49 (69) 8088 3500

Geschäftsführer: Detlef Scholz
Amtsgericht Frankfurt am Main, HRB 110259

The rating methodologies used in the analysis of this transaction can be found at: http://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies

-- Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions (11 September 2019)
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/350234/legal-criteria-for-european-structured-finance-transactions
-- Master European Structured Finance Surveillance Methodology (22 April 2020)
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/359884/master-european-structured-finance-surveillance-methodology
-- Operational Risk Assessment for European Structured Finance Servicers (28 February 2020)
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/357429/operational-risk-assessment-for-european-structured-finance-servicers
-- Master European Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities Rating Methodology and Jurisdictional Addenda (21 September 2020) and European RMBS Credit Model 1.0.0.0
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/366958/master-european-residential-mortgage-backed-securities-rating-methodology-and-jurisdictional-addenda
-- Interest Rate Stresses for European Structured Finance Transactions (28 September 2020)
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/367292/interest-rate-stresses-for-european-structured-finance-transactions
-- Derivative Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions (24 September 2020)
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/367092/derivative-criteria-for-european-structured-finance-transactions

A description of how DBRS Morningstar analyses structured finance transactions and how the methodologies are collectively applied can be found at: http://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/278375.

For more information on this credit or on this industry, visit www.dbrsmorningstar.com or contact us at info@dbrsmorningstar.com.