DBRS Morningstar Confirms Rating of Credico Finance 16 S.r.l.

DBRS Ratings GmbH (DBRS Morningstar) confirmed its AAA (sf) rating on the Class A Notes issued by Credico Finance 16 S.r.l. (the Issuer).

The rating addresses the timely payment of interest and ultimate payment of principal on or before the final maturity date.

The confirmation follows an annual review of the transaction and is based on the following analytical considerations:

-- Portfolio performance, in terms of delinquencies, defaults, and losses as of the September 2020 payment date;
-- Probability of default (PD), loss given default (LGD), and expected loss assumptions on the remaining receivables;
-- Current available credit enhancement to the Class A Notes to cover the expected losses at the AAA (sf) rating level;
-- Current economic environment and an assessment of sustainable performance, as a result of the Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) pandemic.

Credico Finance 16 S.r.l. is a securitisation of Italian residential mortgage loans that was originated and serviced by 16 cooperative and independent Italian banks (BCCs, or Banca di Credito Cooperativo), each belonging to ICCREA’s network. Currently 15 BCCs service the transaction, following mergers and acquisitions. ICCREA Banca S.p.A. (ICCREA) covers the role of operating bank and backup servicer and is responsible for supporting the activities of the BCCs in terms of payment services, funding techniques, regulatory, and administrating activities. Zenith Service S.p.A. is the backup servicer facilitator. The transaction closed in November 2016, when the special-purpose vehicle issued one senior class of floating-rate notes and 16 junior classes of floating-rate and variable return notes, namely the Class A and Class B Notes.

The transaction is structured with several combined (principal plus interest) waterfalls (one for each BCC) where each portfolio supports a portion of the Class A Notes on the basis of the respective contribution to the aggregate portfolio. Upon breach of certain conditions (cross-collateral events), the waterfalls will collapse into a unique combined waterfall.

There are also other mechanism in place for the purpose of each portfolio supporting the others, if certain conditions are met (detrimental event and disequilibrium event).

PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE

As of the July 2020 cut-off, loans that were two- to three-months in arrears represented 0.3% of the outstanding portfolio balance, slightly up from 0.2% as of the July 2019 cut-off. The 90+ delinquency ratio was 1.3%, up from 0.4% as of the July 2019 cut-off. The gross cumulative default ratio just showed a marginal increase from last year, to 0.04% from 0.01%.

PORTFOLIO ASSUMPTIONS AND KEY DRIVERS

DBRS Morningstar conducted a loan-by-loan analysis of the remaining pool of receivables and has updated its base case PD and LGD assumptions to 8.2% and 6.9%, respectively.

CREDIT ENHANCEMENT

Overcollateralisation of the outstanding collateral portfolio provides credit enhancement to the Class A Notes. As of the September 2020 payment date, credit enhancement to the Class A Notes was 27.8%, up from 23.2% as of the September 2019 payment date.

The transaction benefits from an amortising cash reserve, which is composed of several different cash reserves (one for each BCC) and has currently reached its floor level of EUR 16.9 million (or 3.0% of the initial outstanding balance of the Class A Notes). The reserve is available to cover shortfalls on senior fees, expenses, and interest on the Class A Notes. Furthermore, if the available funds are not sufficient to cover the scheduled payment, each cash reserve can be used – after payment of senior fees and interest on Class A Notes – to repay principal on the Class A Notes, up to 80% of its target amount.

BNP Paribas Securities Services, Milan branch acts as the account bank for the transaction. Based on the private rating of the account bank, the downgrade provisions outlined in the transaction documents, and structural mitigants inherent in the transaction structure, DBRS Morningstar considers the risk arising from the exposure to the account bank to be consistent with the rating assigned to the Class A Notes, as described in DBRS Morningstar's "Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions" methodology.

DBRS Morningstar analysed the transaction structure in Intex DealMaker.

The Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) and the resulting isolation measures have caused an economic contraction, leading to sharp increases in unemployment rates and income reductions for many borrowers. DBRS Morningstar anticipates that delinquencies may increase in the coming months for many RMBS transactions, some meaningfully. The ratings are based on additional analysis and adjustments to expected performance as a result of the global efforts to contain the spread of the coronavirus.

For this transaction, DBRS Morningstar increased the expected default rate for self-employed borrowers and assumed a moderate decline in residential property prices. In addition, DBRS Morningstar conducted additional sensitivity analysis to determine that the transaction benefits from sufficient liquidity support to withstand potentially high payment holiday levels in the portfolio. As of 31 August 2020 (latest data available), around 12.6% of the portfolio balance benefitted from a payment moratorium.

On 16 April 2020, the DBRS Morningstar Sovereign group released a set of macroeconomic scenarios for the 2020-22 period in select economies. These scenarios were last updated on 10 September 2020. For details, see the following commentaries:
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/366543/dbrs-morningstar-global-macroeconomic-scenarios-september-update and https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/359903/global-macroeconomic-scenarios-application-to-credit-ratings. The DBRS Morningstar analysis considered impacts consistent with the moderate scenario in the referenced reports.

On 5 May 2020, DBRS Morningstar published a commentary outlining how the coronavirus is likely to affect the DBRS Morningstar-rated RMBS transactions in Europe. For more details, please see: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/360599/european-rmbs-transactions-risk-exposure-to-coronavirus-covid-19-effect and https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/362712/european-structured-finance-covid-19-credit-risk-exposure-roadmap.

For more information regarding rating methodologies and Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), please see the following DBRS Morningstar press release: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/357883.

For more information regarding structured finance rating methodologies and Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), please see the following DBRS Morningstar press release: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/358308.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS

A description of how DBRS Morningstar considers ESG factors within the DBRS Morningstar analytical framework and its methodologies can be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/357792.

Notes:

All figures are in euros unless otherwise noted.

The principal methodology applicable to the rating is the “Master European Structured Finance Surveillance Methodology” (22 April 2020).

DBRS Morningstar has applied the principal methodology consistently and conducted a review of the transaction in accordance with the principal methodology.

A review of the transaction legal documents was not conducted as the legal documents have remained unchanged since the most recent rating action.

Other methodologies referenced in this transaction are listed at the end of this press release. These may be found at: http://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies.

For a more detailed discussion of the sovereign risk impact on Structured Finance ratings, please refer to “Appendix C: The Impact of Sovereign Ratings on Other DBRS Morningstar Credit Ratings” of the “Global Methodology for Rating Sovereign Governments” at:
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/364527/global-methodology-for-rating-sovereign-governments

The sources of data and information used for this rating include investor and payment reports provided by Accounting Partners S.r.l., servicer reports, and additional information provided by ICCREA; and loan-level data provided by the European DataWarehouse GmbH.

DBRS Morningstar did not rely upon third-party due diligence to conduct its analysis.
At the time of the initial rating, DBRS Morningstar was supplied with third-party assessments. However, this did not impact the rating analysis.

DBRS Morningstar considers the data and information available to it for the purposes of providing this rating to be of satisfactory quality.

DBRS Morningstar does not audit or independently verify the data or information it receives in connection with the rating process.

The last rating action on this transaction took place on 6 November 2019, when DBRS Morningstar upgraded its rating on the Class A Notes to AAA (sf) from AA (sf).

Information regarding DBRS Morningstar ratings, including definitions, policies, and methodologies is available at www.dbrsmorningstar.com.

To assess the impact of changing the transaction parameters on the rating, DBRS Morningstar considered the following stress scenarios as compared with the parameters used to determine the rating (the Base Case):

-- DBRS Morningstar expected a lifetime base case PD and LGD for the pool based on a review of the current assets. Adverse changes to asset performance may cause stresses to base case assumptions and therefore have a negative effect on credit ratings.

-- The base case PD and LGD of the current pool of loans for the Issuer are 8.2% and 6.9%, respectively.

-- The risk sensitivity overview below illustrates the ratings expected if the PD and LGD increase by a certain percentage over the base case assumption. For example, if the LGD increases by 50%, the rating of the Class A Notes would be expected to remain at AAA (sf), assuming no change in the PD. If the PD increases by 50%, the rating of the Class A Notes would be expected to remain at AAA (sf), assuming no change in the LGD. Furthermore, if both the PD and LGD increase by 50%, the ratings of the Class A Notes would be expected to fall to AA (high) (sf).

Class A Notes Risk Sensitivity:

-- 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of AAA (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of AAA (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected rating of AAA (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected rating of AAA (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of AAA (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of AAA (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (high) (sf)

For further information on DBRS Morningstar historical default rates published by the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) in a central repository, see:
http://cerep.esma.europa.eu/cerep-web/statistics/defaults.xhtml.

Ratings assigned by DBRS Ratings GmbH are subject to EU and U.S. regulations only.

Lead Analyst: Daniele Canestrari, Senior Analyst
Rating Committee Chair: Alfonso Candelas, Senior Vice President
Initial Rating Date: 14 November 2016

DBRS Ratings GmbH
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60311 Frankfurt am Main – Deutschland
Tel. +49 (69) 8088 3500

Geschäftsführer: Detlef Scholz
Amtsgericht Frankfurt am Main, HRB 110259

The rating methodologies used in the analysis of this transaction can be found at: http://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies.

-- Master European Structured Finance Surveillance Methodology (22 April 2020),
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/359884/master-european-structured-finance-surveillance-methodology.
-- Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions (11 September 2019),
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/350234/legal-criteria-for-european-structured-finance-transactions.
-- Operational Risk Assessment for European Structured Finance Servicers (28 February 2020), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/357429/operational-risk-assessment-for-european-structured-finance-servicers.
-- Master European Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities Rating Methodology and Jurisdictional Addenda (21 September 2020) and European RMBS Credit Model 1.0.0.0,
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/366958/master-european-residential-mortgage-backed-securities-rating-methodology-and-jurisdictional-addenda.
-- Interest Rate Stresses for European Structured Finance Transactions (28 September 2020), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/367292/interest-rate-stresses-for-european-structured-finance-transactions.

A description of how DBRS Morningstar analyses structured finance transactions and how the methodologies are collectively applied can be found at: http://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/278375.

For more information on this credit or on this industry, visit www.dbrsmorningstar.com or contact us at info@dbrsmorningstar.com.