DBRS Morningstar Confirms Rating on Brera SEC S.r.l.

DBRS Ratings GmbH (DBRS Morningstar) confirmed its A (high) (sf) rating on the Class A notes issued by Brera SEC S.r.l. (the Issuer).

The rating addresses the timely payment of interest and the ultimate payment of principal on or before the legal final maturity date in November 2071.

The confirmation follows an annual review of the transaction and is based on the following analytical considerations:
-- Portfolio performance, in terms of delinquencies, defaults, and losses as of the August 2020 payment date.
-- Probability of default (PD), loss given default (LGD), and expected loss assumptions on the remaining receivables.
-- Current available credit enhancement to the Class A notes to cover the expected losses at the A (high) (sf) rating level.
-- Current economic environment and an assessment of sustainable performance, as a result of the Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) pandemic.

Brera SEC S.r.l. is a securitisation of Italian residential mortgage loans originated by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and the following subsidiaries: Banco di Napoli S.p.A., Cassa di Risparmio in Bologna S.p.A., Cassa di Risparmio del Friuli Venezia Giulia S.p.A., and Cassa dei Risparmi di Forli' e della Romagna S.p.A., which at closing were also the servicers, sellers, and receivables account banks of this transaction. Since then, the aforementioned subsidiaries have been incorporated into Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. The transaction, which follows the standard structure under Italian securitisation law, closed in December 2017 when the special-purpose vehicle issued one senior class of floating-rate notes (the Class A notes) and one junior class of fixed-rate and additional-return notes (the Class B notes).

PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE
As of the August 2020 payment date, transaction delinquencies remained low: loans that were one- to two-month and two- to three-month delinquent represented 0.03% and 0.2% of the portfolio balance, respectively, while loans more than three-month delinquent represented 0.6%. Gross cumulative defaults amounted to 0.5% of the original collateral balance, of which 5.7% has been recovered to date.

PORTFOLIO ASSUMPTIONS AND KEY DRIVERS
DBRS Morningstar conducted a loan-by-loan analysis of the remaining pool of receivables and has updated its base case PD and LGD assumptions to 5.8% and 17.0%, respectively.

CREDIT ENHANCEMENT
The subordination of the junior obligations provide credit enhancement to the Class A notes. As of the August 2020 payment date, credit enhancement to the Class A notes was 20.1%, up from 17.8%, one year ago.

The transaction benefits from an amortising liquidity reserve, which is available to provide support to the Class A notes throughout the life of the transaction by covering senior fees and shortfall of interest payments (and principal at the final maturity date or redemption date). The liquidity reserve is replenished up to 2.5% of the principal outstanding amount of the Class A notes at the previous calculation date. The reserve is currently at its target level of EUR 110.1 million and has been at its target since closing.

Intesa Sanpaolo SpA acts as the account bank for the transaction. Based on the account bank reference rating of Intesa Sanpaolo SpA at A (low) - being one notch below the DBRS Morningstar public Long Term Critical Obligations Rating of A, the downgrade provisions outlined in the transaction documents, and other mitigating factors inherent in the transaction structure, DBRS Morningstar considers the risk arising from the exposure to the account bank to be consistent with the rating assigned to the Class A notes, as described in DBRS Morningstar's "Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions" methodology.

DBRS Morningstar analysed the transaction structure in Intex DealMaker.

The Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) and the resulting isolation measures have caused an economic contraction, leading to sharp increases in unemployment rates and income reductions for many borrowers. DBRS Morningstar anticipates that delinquencies may increase in the coming months for many RMBS transactions, some meaningfully. The ratings are based on additional analysis and adjustments to expected performance as a result of the global efforts to contain the spread of the coronavirus.

For this transaction, DBRS Morningstar increased the expected default rates for self-employed borrowers, assumed a moderate decline in residential property prices, and conducted additional sensitivity analysis to determine that the transactions benefit from sufficient liquidity support to withstand high levels of payment holidays in the portfolio. As of the August 2020 payment date, around 10.9% of the current portfolio balance benefitted from a payment moratorium.

On 16 April 2020, the DBRS Morningstar Sovereign group released a set of macroeconomic scenarios for the 2020-22 period in select economies. These scenarios were last updated on 10 September 2020. For details, see the following commentaries: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/366542/global-macroeconomic-scenarios-september-update and https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/359903/global-macroeconomic-scenarios-application-to-credit-ratings. The DBRS Morningstar analysis considered impacts consistent with the moderate scenario in the referenced reports.

On 5 May 2020, DBRS Morningstar published a commentary outlining how the coronavirus crisis is likely to affect the DBRS Morningstar-rated RMBS transactions in Europe. For more details, please see: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/360599/european-rmbs-transactions-risk-exposure-to-coronavirus-covid-19-effect and https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/362712/european-structured-finance-covid-19-credit-risk-exposure-roadmap.

For more information regarding rating methodologies and Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), please see the following DBRS Morningstar press release: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/357883.

For more information regarding structured finance rating methodologies and Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), please see the following DBRS Morningstar press release: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/358308.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS
A description of how DBRS Morningstar considers ESG factors within the DBRS Morningstar analytical framework and its methodologies can be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/357792.

Notes:
All figures are in euros unless otherwise noted.

The principal methodology applicable to the rating is the “Master European Structured Finance Surveillance Methodology” (22 April 2020). DBRS Morningstar has applied the principal methodology consistently and conducted a review of the transaction in accordance with the principal methodology.

A review of the transaction legal documents was not conducted as the legal documents have remained unchanged since the most recent rating action.

Other methodologies referenced in this transaction are listed at the end of this press release. These may be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies.

For a more detailed discussion of the sovereign risk impact on Structured Finance ratings, please refer to “Appendix C: The Impact of Sovereign Ratings on Other DBRS Morningstar Credit Ratings” of the “Global Methodology for Rating Sovereign Governments” at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/364527/global-methodology-for-rating-sovereign-governments.

The sources of data and information used for this rating include investor reports provided by Securitisation Services S.p.A., servicer reports provided by Intesa Sanpaolo SpA, and loan-level data provided by the European DataWarehouse GmbH.

DBRS Morningstar did not rely upon third-party due diligence in order to conduct its analysis.

At the time of the initial rating, DBRS Morningstar was supplied with third-party assessments. However, this did not impact the rating analysis.

DBRS Morningstar considers the data and information available to it for the purpose of providing this rating to be of satisfactory quality.

DBRS Morningstar does not audit or independently verify the data or information it receives in connection with the rating process.

The last rating action on this transaction took place on 11 November 2019, when DBRS Morningstar confirmed its A (high) (sf) rating of the Class A notes.

Information regarding DBRS Morningstar ratings, including definitions, policies, and methodologies is available at www.dbrsmorningstar.com.

To assess the impact of changing the transaction parameters on the rating, DBRS Morningstar considered the following stress scenarios as compared with the parameters used to determine the rating (the Base Case):

-- DBRS Morningstar expected a lifetime base case PD and LGD for the pool based on a review of the current assets. Adverse changes to asset performance may cause stresses to base case assumptions and therefore have a negative effect on credit ratings.
-- The base case PD and LGD of the current pool of loans for the Issuer are 5.8% and 17.0%, respectively.
-- The risk sensitivity overview below illustrates the ratings expected if the PD and LGD increase by a certain percentage over the base case assumption. For example, if the LGD increases by 50%, the rating of the Class A notes would be expected to fall to BBB (high) (sf), assuming no change in the PD. If the PD increases by 50%, the rating of the Class A notes would be expected to fall to BBB (high) (sf), assuming no change in the LGD. Furthermore, if both the PD and LGD increase by 50%, the rating of the Class A notes would be expected to fall to BBB (sf).

Class A Risk Sensitivity:
-- 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of BBB (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected rating of BBB (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected rating of BBB (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of BBB (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of BBB (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of BBB (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of BBB (sf)

For further information on DBRS Morningstar historical default rates published by the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) in a central repository, see:
https://cerep.esma.europa.eu/cerep-web/statistics/defaults.xhtml.

Ratings assigned by DBRS Ratings GmbH are subject to EU and U.S. regulations only.

Lead Analyst: Petter Wettestad, Senior Analyst
Rating Committee Chair: Alfonso Candelas, Senior Vice President
Initial Rating Date: 11 December 2017

DBRS Ratings GmbH
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60311 Frankfurt am Main Deutschland
Tel. +49 (69) 8088 3500

Geschäftsführer: Detlef Scholz
Amtsgericht Frankfurt am Main, HRB 110259

The rating methodologies used in the analysis of this transaction can be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies.

-- Master European Structured Finance Surveillance Methodology (22 April 2020),
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/359884/master-european-structured-finance-surveillance-methodology.
-- Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions (11 September 2019),
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/350234/legal-criteria-for-european-structured-finance-transactions.
-- Operational Risk Assessment for European Structured Finance Servicers (28 February 2020), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/357429/operational-risk-assessment-for-european-structured-finance-servicers.
-- Master European Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities Rating Methodology and Jurisdictional Addenda (21 September 2020) and European RMBS Credit Model v 1.0.0.0,
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/366958/master-european-residential-mortgage-backed-securities-rating-methodology-and-jurisdictional-addenda.
-- Interest Rate Stresses for European Structured Finance Transactions (28 September 2020), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/367292/interest-rate-stresses-for-european-structured-finance-transactions.

A description of how DBRS Morningstar analyses structured finance transactions and how the methodologies are collectively applied can be found at https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/278375.

For more information on this credit or on this industry, visit www.dbrsmorningstar.com or contact us at info@dbrsmorningstar.com.