Global Macroeconomic Scenarios: December Update

The latest revisions to our moderate scenario illustrate the stark divergence in economic performance among the major advanced economies during 2020. Many of the economies have seen slight upward adjustments to both the moderate and adverse scenarios. At the other extreme, Spain and the UK are likely to end the year with double digit declines in output. Spain’s performance was particularly surprising, turning one of Europe’s better performing economies in the period preceding the pandemic into the worst performer of this group. France and Italy are also expected to be among the weaker growth performers during 2020.