DBRS Morningstar Releases Global Macroeconomic Scenarios: December Update

DBRS Morningstar released a commentary updating its global macroeconomic scenarios.

The latest revisions to our moderate scenario illustrate the stark divergence in economic performance among the major advanced economies during 2020. Many of the economies have seen slight upward adjustments to both the moderate and adverse scenarios. At the other extreme, Spain and the UK are likely to end the year with double digit declines in output. Spain’s performance was particularly surprising, turning one of Europe’s better performing economies in the period preceding the pandemic into the worst performer of this group. France and Italy are also expected to be among the weaker growth performers during 2020.

The near-term economic outlook remains challenging: the spread of the virus may be difficult to contain in coming months, with adverse effects on activity well into the first quarter of 2021. At the same time, risks of a prolonged slump in global growth appear to have diminished, given the apparent successes in vaccine trials. Accordingly, we see diminishing risks around our adverse scenario and have revised some of the projected growth rates for 2021 and 2022 upward slightly.

“Growth projections for 2021 and the resulting impact on employment are still subject to downside risks, particularly if the deployment or effectiveness of vaccines fails to meet expectations,” says Thomas Torgerson, Co-Head of Sovereign Ratings at DBRS Morningstar.

DBRS Morningstar plans to continue updating these macroeconomic scenarios, providing both an anchor for current rating actions and a benchmark for sensitivity analysis. The scenarios will be updated again by late January.

Notes:
The commentary is available at www.dbrsmorningstar.com.

For more information on our views on the global macroeconomic outlook and sovereign ratings, visit www.dbrsmorningstar.com or contact us at info@dbrsmorningstar.com.

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