DBRS Morningstar Assigns “A” Rating to Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A. Covered Bonds (OBG - Mortgages - Programme 2) Series 40

DBRS Ratings GmbH (DBRS Morningstar) assigned a rating of “A” to Series 40 of the Obbligazioni Bancarie Garantite (OBG; the Italian legislative covered bonds) issued under the Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A. (BMPS or the Issuer) EUR 20 billion covered bond programme (BMPS OBG2 or the Programme) guaranteed by MPS Covered Bond 2 S.r.l.

At the same time, DBRS Morningstar discontinued its rating on Series 25, which reached its final maturity date on 29 October 2020.

Series 40 is a EUR 700 million floating-rate bond indexed to three-month Euribor plus a margin of 0.30%, maturing in July 2024.

As with all other series under the Programme, Series 40 will benefit from a maturity extension to the Long Due for Payment Date of 31 December 2057.

The series of OBG outstanding under the Programme, including the newly issued series, amount to EUR 8.35 billion. All covered bonds issued under the Programme rank pari passu with each other and DBRS Morningstar currently rates them “A”.

The ratings are based on the following analytical considerations:

-- A Covered Bonds Attachment Point (CBAP) of BBB (low), which is BMPS’s Long-Term Critical Obligations Rating. BMPS is the Issuer and Reference Entity for the Programme. DBRS Morningstar classifies the Republic of Italy (Italy; rated BBB (high) with a Negative trend by DBRS Morningstar) as a jurisdiction in which covered bonds are a particularly important funding instrument and deems the cover pool (CP) strategic for the core activity of the Issuer.
-- A Legal and Structuring Framework (LSF) Assessment of “Very Strong” associated with the Programme.
-- A CP Credit Assessment (CPCA) of BBB (low), which is the lowest CPCA in line with the assigned LSF-Implied Likelihood (LSF-L).
-- An LSF-L of A (low).
-- A one-notch uplift for good recovery prospects.
-- A level of overcollateralisation (OC) of 21.0% to which DBRS Morningstar gives credit and which is the minimum level observed in the past 12 months adjusted by a scaling factor of 0.9. BMPS commits to a maximum asset percentage of 86.2%, which translates into a contractually committed level of OC of 16%.

The transaction was analysed with DBRS Morningstar’s European Covered Bond Cash Flow Tool. The main assumptions focused on the timing of defaults and recoveries of the assets and interest rate stresses. In accordance with DBRS Morningstar’s “Rating and Monitoring Covered Bonds” methodology, no forced asset liquidation has been considered for this transaction given the conditional pass-through structure, and DBRS Morningstar has assumed several prepayment scenarios, ranging between a 1% and a 20% prepayment rate.

Everything else being equal, a downgrade of the CBAP by one notch would lead to a downgrade of the LSF-L by one notch, resulting in a downgrade of the covered bond rating by one notch.

In addition, the ratings of the Programme would be downgraded if any of the following occurred: (1) the quality of the CP and the level of OC were no longer sufficient to support a one-notch uplift for good recovery prospects, (2) the LSF Assessment associated with the Programme was downgraded to Average, or (3) the CPCA was downgraded below BBB (low).

Following an Issuer default, the maturities of all OBG are extended to the Long Due for Payment Date and cash flows from the CP are allocated to all series on a pro rata and pari passu basis and distributed to OBG holders via a modified pass-through mechanism. According to such mechanism, monies are accumulated in an account opened by the guarantor with an eligible institution and paid out on the expected maturity date of each OBG. This implies negative carry and has been taken into account in DBRS Morningstar’s cash flow analysis.

The Issuer performs several roles under the Programme documents, including that of the account bank. DBRS Morningstar considers the risk arising from the exposure to BMPS, which has a Critical Obligations Rating of BBB (low), to be consistent with the “A” ratings assigned to the OBG, as described in DBRS Morningstar's "Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions" methodology.

The OBG holders benefit from a reserve that is sufficient to cover senior costs and interest payments on the OBG for the subsequent six months rolling.

As of September 2020, the total CP balance was EUR 10.3 billion, including EUR 8.8 billion of mortgages and EUR 1.5 billion of principal receipts. Currently, including Series 40, there are EUR 8.35 billion of covered bonds outstanding under BMPS OBG2, giving a total OC of 23.3%.

As of September 2020, the mortgage CP comprised mortgages secured on residential properties (75.9% by outstanding loan balance) as well as commercial properties (24.1%). The CP comprises 92,573 mortgages with a weighted-average (WA) unindexed current loan-to-value ratio of 42.4%, based on unindexed property values. The pool is well seasoned, with a WA seasoning of 8.2 years. Geographically, the pool is also well diversified across Italy, with the three largest concentrations in the regions of Tuscany (25.1%), Lazio (13.9%), and Lombardy (13.1%).

The reference rates of the underlying loans were floating rate (64.2%), fixed rate (29.3%), and optional (6.5%), while all OBG outstanding carry a floating coupon. As there are no hedging agreements in place, OBG holders are exposed to interest rate mismatch, which has been taken into account in DBRS Morningstar’s cash flow analysis.

All CP assets and liabilities are denominated in euros. As such, investors are not currently exposed to any foreign exchange risk.

As of September 2020, the WA life of the CP was 8.5 years, which is longer than the 1.9-year WA life on the OBG when taking into account the expected maturity (calculated as of today). This risk is mitigated by the Long Due for Payment Date, which falls on 31 December 2057.

DBRS Morningstar has assessed the LSF related to the BMPS OBG2 Programme as “Very Strong”, according to its rating methodology. For more information, please refer to the DBRS Morningstar commentaries “DBRS Assigns LSF Assessment to Italian Covered Bonds” and “Italian Obbligazioni Bancarie Garantite: Legal and Structuring Framework Review,” available at www.dbrsmorningstar.com.

COVID Considerations
The Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) and the resulting isolation measures have caused an economic contraction, leading to sharp increases in unemployment rates and income reductions for many borrowers. DBRS Morningstar anticipates that payment holidays and delinquencies may increase in the coming months for many CPs, some meaningfully. The ratings are based on additional analysis as a result of the global efforts to contain the spread of the coronavirus. In the cover pool analysis of this programme, DBRS Morningstar assumed a moderate decline in residential property prices.

On 16 April 2020, the DBRS Morningstar Sovereign group released a set of macroeconomic scenarios for the 2020-22 period in select economies. These scenarios were last updated on 2 December 2020. For details, see the following commentaries: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/370672/global-macroeconomic-scenarios-december-update and https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/359903/global-macroeconomic-scenarios-application-to-credit-ratings. The DBRS Morningstar analysis considered impacts consistent with the moderate scenario in the referenced reports.

On 24 April 2020, DBRS Morningstar published a commentary outlining how the coronavirus crisis is likely to affect DBRS Morningstar-rated covered bonds in Europe. For more details, please see: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/359987/covid-19-the-impact-on-european-covered-bonds and https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/362712/european-structured-finance-covid-19-credit-risk-exposure-roadmap.

For more information regarding rating methodologies and Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), please see the following DBRS Morningstar press release: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/357883.

For more information regarding structured finance rating methodologies and Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), please see the following DBRS Morningstar press release: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/358308.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS
A description of how DBRS Morningstar considers ESG factors within the DBRS Morningstar analytical framework and its methodologies can be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/357792.

Notes:
All figures are in euros unless otherwise noted.

The principal methodology applicable to the ratings is “Rating and Monitoring Covered Bonds” (27 April 2020). This can be found at https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies.

In DBRS Morningstar’s opinion, the change(s) under consideration do not require the application of the entire principal methodology. Therefore, DBRS Morningstar focused on the cash flow analysis.

A review of the transaction legal documents was limited to the documentation pertaining to the issuance of Series 40. All the other documents have remained unchanged since the most recent rating action.

Other methodologies referenced in this transaction are listed at the end of this press release. These may be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies.

For a more detailed discussion of the sovereign risk impact on Structured Finance ratings, please refer to “Appendix C: The Impact of Sovereign Ratings on Other DBRS Morningstar Credit Ratings” of the “Global Methodology for Rating Sovereign Governments” at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/364527/global-methodology-for-rating-sovereign-governments.

The sources of data and information used for these ratings include investor reports and stratification information on the CP provided by the Issuer as of September 2020.

DBRS Morningstar did not rely upon third-party due diligence in order to conduct its analysis.

At the time of initial ratings, DBRS Morningstar was not supplied with third-party assessments. However, this did not impact the rating analysis.

DBRS Morningstar considers the information available to it for the purposes of providing these ratings to be of satisfactory quality.

DBRS Morningstar does not audit or independently verify the data or information it receives in connection with the rating process.

The last rating action on this transaction took place on 16 September 2020, when DBRS Morningstar assigned “A” ratings to the Series 38 and 39 issued under the Programme.

Information regarding DBRS Morningstar ratings, including definitions, policies, and methodologies, is available on www.dbrsmorningstar.com.

For further information on DBRS Morningstar historical default rates published by the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) in a central repository, see: http://cerep.esma.europa.eu/cerep-web/statistics/defaults.xhtml.

DBRS Morningstar understands further information on DBRS Morningstar historical default rates may be published by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) on its webpage: https://www.fca.org.uk/firms/credit-rating-agencies.

This rating is endorsed by DBRS Ratings Limited for use in the United Kingdom.

Lead Analyst: Antonio Laudani, Vice President
Rating Committee Chair: Christian Aufsatz, Managing Director
Initial Rating Date: 3 September 2013

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The rating methodologies used in the analysis of this transaction can be found at:
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies.

-- Rating and Monitoring Covered Bonds (27 April 2020),
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/360260/rating-and-monitoring-covered-bonds.
-- Rating and Monitoring Covered Bonds Addendum: Market Value Spreads (27 April 2020),
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/360263/rating-and-monitoring-covered-bonds-addendum-market-value-spreads.
-- Global Methodology for Rating Banks and Banking Organisations (8 June 2020),
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/362170/global-methodology-for-rating-banks-and-banking-organisations.
-- Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions (17 September 2020),
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/366797/legal-criteria-for-european-structured-finance-transactions-request-for-comment.
-- Interest Rate Stresses for European Structured Finance Transactions (28 September 2020), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/367292/interest-rate-stresses-for-european-structured-finance-transactions
-- Operational Risk Assessment for European Structured Finance Originators (30 September 2020), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/367603/operational-risk-assessment-for-european-structured-finance-originators
-- Operational Risk Assessment for European Structured Finance Servicers (19 November 2020), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/370270/operational-risk-assessment-for-european-structured-finance-servicers.
-- Master European Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities Rating Methodology and Jurisdictional Addenda (14 January 2021) and European RMBS Credit Model v 1.0.0.0,
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/372339/master-european-residential-mortgage-backed-securities-rating-methodology-and-jurisdictional-addenda.
-- Rating CLOs and CDOs of Large Corporate Credit (21 July 2020),
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/364310/rating-clos-and-cdos-of-large-corporate-credit
-- Rating CLOs Backed by Loans to European SMEs (30 September 2020) and DBRS Diversity Model v2.4.2.0, https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/367642/rating-clos-backed-by-loans-to-european-smes.
-- Global Methodology for Rating Sovereign Governments (27 July 2020),
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/364527/global-methodology-for-rating-sovereign-governments.

A description of how DBRS Morningstar analyses structured finance transactions and how the methodologies are collectively applied can be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/278375.

For more information on this credit or on this industry, visit www.dbrsmorningstar.com or contact us at info@dbrsmorningstar.com.