DBRS Morningstar Upgrades Ratings on MotoPark Finance plc

DBRS Ratings Limited (DBRS Morningstar) upgraded its ratings of the notes issued by MotoPark Finance plc (the Issuer) as follows:

-- Class A Notes to AA (high) (sf) from A (high) (sf)
-- Class B Notes to A (high) (sf) from BBB (high) (sf)

The ratings of the Class A and Class B Notes address the timely payment of interest and ultimate payment of principal on or before the legal final maturity date in June 2025.

The upgrades follow an annual review of the transaction and are based on the following analytical considerations:
-- Portfolio performance, in terms of delinquencies, defaults, and losses, as of the December 2020 payment date.
-- Probability of default (PD), loss given default (LGD), and expected loss assumptions on the remaining receivables.
-- Current available credit enhancement to the notes to cover the expected losses at their respective rating levels.
-- Current economic environment and an assessment of sustainable performance, as a result of the Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) pandemic.

The Issuer is a securitisation of hire purchase and PCP auto loan contracts originated and serviced by FirstRand Bank Limited (FirstRand Bank), acting through its London Branch through its trading name, MotoNovo Finance, to borrowers in the UK. The transaction had an 18-month revolving period, which terminated in July 2019.

PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE
As of the December 2020 payment date, loans two to three months in arrears represented 1.1% of the outstanding portfolio balance, up from 0.4% in December 2019. Loans more than three months in arrears represented 3.5% of the outstanding portfolio balance, up from 0.8% in December 2019. Cumulative write-offs were 1.7% and cumulative voluntary terminations were 0.5%.

PORTFOLIO ASSUMPTIONS AND KEY DRIVERS
DBRS Morningstar conducted an analysis of the remaining receivables including additional coronavirus-related adjustments and updated its PD, LGD, and Residual Value (RV) Haircut assumptions to the following:
-- Expected PD assumption of 5.7%.
-- LGD assumptions of 69.9% and 66.3% at the AA (high) (sf) and A (high) (sf) rating levels, respectively.
-- RV Haircut assumptions of 37.5% and 30.0% at the AA (high) (sf) and A (high) (sf) rating levels, respectively.

CREDIT ENHANCEMENT AND RESERVES
As of the December 2020 payment date, credit enhancement to the Class A Notes was 20.3%, up from 8.7% in December 2019. Credit enhancement to the Class B Notes was 10.5%, up from 3.7% in December 2019. Credit enhancement is provided by overcollateralisation and subordination of the junior notes.

The transaction benefits from a cash reserve funded to its target balance of GBP 2.8 million, equal to 1.3% of the principal outstanding balance of the receivables. The cash reserve is available to cover senior fees and interest on the Class A and Class B Notes.

HSBC Bank plc (HSBC) acts as the account bank for the transaction. Based on the DBRS Morningstar private rating of HSBC, the downgrade provisions outlined in the transaction documents, and other mitigating factors inherent in the transaction structure, DBRS Morningstar considers the risk arising from the exposure to the account bank to be consistent with the rating assigned to the Class A Notes, as described in DBRS Morningstar's "Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions" methodology.

HSBC acts as the swap counterparty for the transaction. DBRS Morningstar's private rating of HSBC is above the First Rating Threshold as described in DBRS Morningstar's "Derivative Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions" methodology.

DBRS Morningstar analysed the transaction structure in Intex DealMaker.

The Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) and the resulting isolation measures have caused an economic contraction, leading to sharp increases in unemployment rates and income reductions for many borrowers. DBRS Morningstar anticipates that delinquencies may continue to increase in the coming months for many ABS transactions, some meaningfully. The ratings are based on additional analysis and adjustments to expected performance as a result of the global efforts to contain the spread of the coronavirus. For this transaction, DBRS Morningstar applied an additional haircut to its expected recovery rate and considered reported payment holidays in its cash flow analysis.

On 16 April 2020, the DBRS Morningstar Sovereign group released a set of macroeconomic scenarios for the 2020-22 period in select economies. These scenarios were last updated on 2 December 2020. For details, see the following commentaries: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/370672/global-macroeconomic-scenarios-december-update and https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/359903/global-macroeconomic-scenarios-application-to-credit-ratings. The DBRS Morningstar analysis considered impacts consistent with the moderate scenario in the referenced reports.

On 8 May 2020, DBRS Morningstar published a commentary outlining how the coronavirus crisis is likely to affect DBRS Morningstar-rated ABS transactions in Europe. For more details, please see: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/360734/european-abs-transactions-risk-exposure-to-coronavirus-covid-19-effect and https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/362712/european-structured-finance-covid-19-credit-risk-exposure-roadmap.

For more information regarding rating methodologies and Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), please see the following DBRS Morningstar press release: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/357883.

For more information regarding the structured finance rating approach and Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), please see the following DBRS Morningstar press release: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/359905.

For more information regarding structured finance rating methodologies and Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), please see the following DBRS Morningstar press release: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/358308.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS
A description of how DBRS Morningstar considers ESG factors within the DBRS Morningstar analytical framework and its methodologies can be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/357792.

Notes:
All figures are in British pound sterling unless otherwise noted.

The principal methodology applicable to the ratings is the “Master European Structured Finance Surveillance Methodology” (22 April 2020).

DBRS Morningstar has applied the principal methodology consistently and conducted a review of the transaction in accordance with the principal methodology.

A review of the transaction legal documents was not conducted as the legal documents have remained unchanged since the most recent rating action.

Other methodologies referenced in this transaction are listed at the end of this press release. These may be found at: http://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies.

For a more detailed discussion of the sovereign risk impact on Structured Finance ratings, please refer to “Appendix C: The Impact of Sovereign Ratings on Other DBRS Morningstar Credit Ratings” of the “Global Methodology for Rating Sovereign Governments” at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/364527/global-methodology-for-rating-sovereign-governments.

The sources of data and information used for these ratings include investor reports and portfolio data provided by HSBC and FirstRand Bank.

DBRS Morningstar did not rely upon third-party due diligence in order to conduct its analysis.

At the time of the initial rating, DBRS Morningstar was supplied with third-party assessments. However, this did not impact the rating analysis.

DBRS Morningstar considers the data and information available to it for the purposes of providing these ratings to be of satisfactory quality.

DBRS Morningstar does not audit or independently verify the data or information it receives in connection with the rating process.

The last rating action on this transaction took place on 24 January 2020, when DBRS Morningstar upgraded its ratings of the Class A and Class B Notes to A (high) (sf) and BBB (high) (sf), from A (sf) and BBB (sf), respectively.

Information regarding DBRS Morningstar ratings, including definitions, policies, and methodologies is available at www.dbrsmorningstar.com.

To assess the impact of changing the transaction parameters on the rating, DBRS Morningstar considered the following stress scenarios as compared with the parameters used to determine the ratings (the Base Case):

-- DBRS Morningstar expected a lifetime base case PD, LGD, and RV Haircut for the pool based on a review of the current assets. Adverse changes to asset performance may cause stresses to base case assumptions and therefore have a negative effect on credit ratings.

-- Expected PD assumption of 5.7%.
-- LGD assumptions of 69.9% and 66.3% at the AA (high) (sf) and A (high) (sf) rating levels, respectively.
-- RV Haircut assumptions of 37.5% and 30.0% at the AA (high) (sf) and A (high) (sf) rating levels, respectively.

-- The risk sensitivity overview below illustrates the ratings expected if the PD and LGD increase by a certain percentage over the base case assumption, with no change to the RV Haircut. For example, if the LGD increases by 50%, the rating of the Class A Notes would be expected to fall to A (high) (sf), assuming no change in the PD and RV Haircut. If the PD increases by 50%, the rating of the Class A Notes would be expected to fall to A (high) (sf), assuming no change in the LGD and RV Haircut. Furthermore, if both the PD and LGD increase by 50% with no change in the RV Haircut, the rating of the Class A Notes would be expected to fall to A (low) (sf).

Class A Notes Risk Sensitivity:
-- 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected rating of AA (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (low) (sf)

Class B Notes Risk Sensitivity:
-- 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of BBB (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected rating of A (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected rating of BBB (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of BBB (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of BBB (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of BBB (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of BB (sf)

For further information on DBRS Morningstar historical default rates published by the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) in a central repository, see: http://cerep.esma.europa.eu/cerep-web/statistics/defaults.xhtml. DBRS Morningstar understands further information on DBRS Morningstar historical default rates may be published by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) on its webpage: https://www.fca.org.uk/firms/credit-rating-agencies.

These ratings are endorsed by DBRS Ratings GmbH for use in the European Union.

Lead Analyst: Clare Wootton, Assistant Vice President
Rating Committee Chair: Alfonso Candelas, Senior Vice President
Initial Rating Date: 24 January 2018

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Registered and incorporated under the laws of England and Wales: Company No. 7139960.

The rating methodologies used in the analysis of this transaction can be found at: http://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies.

-- Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions (11 September 2019)
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/350234/legal-criteria-for-european-structured-finance-transactions
-- Master European Structured Finance Surveillance Methodology (22 April 2020)
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/359884/master-european-structured-finance-surveillance-methodology
-- Operational Risk Assessment for European Structured Finance Servicers (19 November 2020)
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/370270/operational-risk-assessment-for-european-structured-finance-servicers
-- Rating European Consumer and Commercial Asset-Backed Securitisations (3 September 2020)
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/366294/rating-european-consumer-and-commercial-asset-backed-securitisations
-- Interest Rate Stresses for European Structured Finance Transactions (28 September 2020)
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/367292/interest-rate-stresses-for-european-structured-finance-transactions
-- Derivative Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions (24 September 2020)
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/367092/derivative-criteria-for-european-structured-finance-transactions
-- Rating European Structured Finance Transactions Methodology (21 July 2020)
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/364305/rating-european-structured-finance-transactions-methodology

A description of how DBRS Morningstar analyses structured finance transactions and how the methodologies are collectively applied can be found at http://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/278375.

For more information on this credit or on this industry, visit www.dbrsmorningstar.com or contact us at info@dbrsmorningstar.com.