DBRS Morningstar Releases Updated Global Macroeconomic Scenarios

DBRS Morningstar released a commentary updating its global macroeconomic scenarios. This commentary provides our latest assessment of the economic recovery and labor market impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Recent weeks have not provided much comfort with regard to the global recovery. Rapid growth in new COVID-19 cases across a wide range of countries has triggered additional restrictions on activity. Efforts to inject fiscal stimulus are unlikely to generate a lasting recovery until pandemic conditions improve. Meanwhile, the fiscal response grows more costly as long as the constraints on activity remain elevated.

We still see scope for a stronger recovery later in the year. For example, U.S. forecasts now reflect expectations of further fiscal easing, which will likely contribute to a stronger recovery reinforced by the ongoing vaccine rollout. Nonetheless, in some countries, vaccine rollouts have been hampered by production delays and other logistical challenges.

“The emergence of COVID-19 variants that could make some vaccines less effective is a key concern and may prompt further reevaluation of growth prospects,” notes Thomas Torgerson, Co-Head of Sovereign Ratings at DBRS Morningstar. “If infection rates remain elevated and vaccines fail to grant lasting immunity from the effects of the virus, all countries could experience further setbacks.”

Unemployment figures toward the end of 2020 are in most cases lower than expected. The substantial rebound in labor utilization during Q3 was reassuring, but still reflects extraordinary support from governments. We continue to see risks of a rise in unemployment as fiscal support is gradually withdrawn. Nonetheless, many governments remain committed to programs designed to support worker retention, and any rise will likely be gradual.

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The commentary is available at www.dbrsmorningstar.com.

For more information on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on DBRS Morningstar ratings, visit www.dbrsmorningstar.com or contact us at info@dbrsmorningstar.com.

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