Press Release

DBRS Morningstar Confirms Class A Notes of Futura 2019 S.r.l. at BBB (sf) and Maintains Negative Trend

Nonperforming Loans

March 05, 2021

DBRS Ratings GmbH (DBRS Morningstar) confirmed its rating on the Class A notes issued by Futura 2019 S.r.l. (the Issuer) at BBB (sf) and maintained a Negative trend.

The transaction represents the issuance of Class A, Class B, and Class J notes (collectively, the Notes). The rating on the Class A notes addresses the timely payment of interest and ultimate payment of principal. DBRS Morningstar does not rate the Class B or Class J notes.

As of the 30 June 2019 selection date, the Notes were backed by a EUR 1.26 billion portfolio by gross book value sold by Futura SPV S.r.l. (the Seller) and originally purchased from 53 Italian banks in 2018. The securitised portfolio was composed of secured loans representing approximately 51.8% of the GBV, and unsecured loans, representing the remaining 48.2% of the GBV.

The receivables are serviced by Guber Banca S.p.A. (Guber or the Servicer). Centotrenta Servicing S.p.A. operates as backup servicer in the transaction.

RATING RATIONALE
The confirmation follows a review of the transaction and is based on the following analytical considerations:
-- Transaction performance: an assessment of portfolio recoveries as of 31 December 2020, focusing on: (1) a comparison between actual collections and the Servicer´s initial business plan forecast; (2) the collection performance observed over the past months, including the period following the outbreak of the Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19); and (3) a comparison between the current performance and DBRS Morningstar’s initial expectations.
-- The Servicer’s updated business plan: a review of the business plan, received by DBRS Morningstar in December 2020, and the comparison with the actual collections and initial collection expectations.
-- Portfolio characteristics: loan pool composition as of December 2020 and evolution of its core features since issuance.
-- Transaction liquidating structure: the order of priority entails a fully sequential amortisation of the notes (i.e., the Class B notes will begin to amortise following the full repayment of the Class A notes, and the Class J notes will amortise following the repayment of the Class B notes). Additionally, interest payments on the Class B notes become subordinated to principal payments on the Class A notes if the cumulative gross collection ratio or present value cumulative profitability ratio are lower than 100%. These triggers were not breached on the January 2021 interest payment date, with the actual figures being 133.5% and 110.9%, respectively, according to the Servicer.
-- Liquidity support: the transaction benefits from an amortising cash reserve providing liquidity to the structure covering against potential interest shortfall on the Class A notes and senior fees. The cash reserve target amount is equal to 4.5% of the Class A notes principal outstanding and is currently fully funded.

According to the latest payment report of January 2021, the outstanding principal amounts of the Class A, Class B, and Class J notes were equal to EUR 119.2 million, EUR 37.0 million, and EUR 8.0 million, respectively. The balance of the Class A notes has amortised by approximately 24.5% since issuance. The current aggregated transaction balance is EUR 164.2 million.

As of December 2020, the transaction was performing above the Servicer’s initial expectations. The actual cumulative gross collections equaled EUR 65.6 million (including EUR 11.4 million initial collections, included in the initial business plan, which were not transferred to the Issuer), whereas the Servicer’s initial business plan estimated cumulative gross collections of EUR 49.2 million for the same period. Therefore, as of December 2020, the transaction was overperforming by EUR 16.5 million (33.5%) compared with initial expectations.

At issuance, DBRS Morningstar estimated cumulative gross collections for the same period of EUR 30.4 million at the BBB (sf) stressed scenario (excluding EUR 11.4 million of initial collections). Therefore, as of December 2020, the transaction is performing above DBRS Morningstar’s stressed initial expectations.

In December 2020, the Servicer provided DBRS Morningstar with a revised business plan. In this updated business plan, the Servicer expects recoveries in line with initial expectations. The total cumulative gross collections from the updated business plan account for EUR 267.3 million, which is 0.9% lower compared with the EUR 269.8 million expected in the initial business plan.

Without including actual collections, the Servicer’s expected future collections from January 2021 are now accounting for EUR 210.0 million (EUR 220.6 million in the initial business plan). Hence, the Servicer’s expectation for collection on the remaining portfolio was revised downwards. The updated DBRS Morningstar BBB (sf) rating stress assumes a haircut of 26.2% to the Servicer’s latest business plan, considering future expected collections.

The final maturity date of the transaction is in July 2044.

DBRS Morningstar analysed the transaction structure using Intex DealMaker.

The coronavirus and the resulting isolation measures have resulted in a sharp economic contraction, increases in unemployment rates, and reduced investment activities. DBRS Morningstar anticipates that collections in European nonperforming loan (NPL) securitisations will continue to be disrupted in the coming months and that the deteriorating macroeconomic conditions could negatively affect recoveries from NPLs and the related real estate collateral. The rating is based on additional analysis and adjustments to expected performance as a result of the global efforts to contain the spread of the coronavirus. For this transaction, DBRS Morningstar incorporated its expectation of a moderate medium-term decline in property prices; however, partial credit to house price increases from 2023 onwards is given in noninvestment grade scenarios. The Negative trend reflects the ongoing uncertainty amid the coronavirus.

On 16 April 2020, DBRS Morningstar published a set of macroeconomic scenarios for the 2020-22 period in select economies. These scenarios were last updated on 28 January 2021. For details, see the following commentaries: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/372842/global-macroeconomic-scenarios-january-2021-update and https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/359903/global-macroeconomic-scenarios-application-to-credit-ratings. The DBRS Morningstar analysis considered impacts consistent with the moderate scenario in the referenced reports.

For more information on DBRS Morningstar considerations for European NPL transactions and Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), please see the following commentaries: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/362326 and https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/360393.

For more information regarding rating methodologies and Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), please see the following DBRS Morningstar press release: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/357883.

For more information regarding structured finance rating methodologies and Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), please see the following DBRS Morningstar press release: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/358308.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS
A description of how DBRS Morningstar considers ESG factors within the DBRS Morningstar analytical framework can be found in the DBRS Morningstar Criteria: Approach to Environmental, Social, and Governance Risk Factors in Credit Ratings at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/373262.

Notes:
All figures are in euros unless otherwise noted.

The principal methodology applicable to the rating is: “Master European Structured Finance Surveillance Methodology” (8 February 2021).

DBRS Morningstar has applied the principal methodology consistently and conducted a review of the transaction in accordance with the principal methodology.

A review of the transaction legal documents was not conducted as the legal documents have remained unchanged since the most recent rating action.

Other methodologies referenced in this transaction are listed at the end of this press release.

These may be found at: http://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies.

For a more detailed discussion of the sovereign risk impact on Structured Finance ratings, please refer to “Appendix C: The Impact of Sovereign Ratings on Other DBRS Morningstar Credit Ratings” of the “Global Methodology for Rating Sovereign Governments” at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/364527/global-methodology-for-rating-sovereign-governments.

The sources of data and information used for this rating includes the Issuer and/or its agents, which comprise, in addition to the information received at issuance, the updated business plan from the Servicer received in December 2020, updated servicer reports as of December 2020, and the investor report as of January 2021.

DBRS Morningstar did not rely upon third-party due diligence in order to conduct its analysis.

At the time of the initial rating, DBRS Morningstar was supplied with third-party assessments. However, this did not impact the rating analysis.

DBRS Morningstar considers the data and information available to it for the purposes of providing this rating to be of satisfactory quality.

DBRS Morningstar does not audit or independently verify the data or information it receives in connection with the rating process.

The last rating action on this transaction took place on 8 May 2020, when DBRS Morningstar assigned a Negative trend to the Class A notes rating.

The lead analyst responsibilities for this transaction have been transferred to Sebastiano Romano.

Information regarding DBRS Morningstar ratings, including definitions, policies, and methodologies, is available on www.dbrsmorningstar.com.

To assess the impact of changing the transaction parameters on the rating, DBRS Morningstar considered the following stress scenarios, as compared to the parameters used to confirm the rating (the Base Case):

-- Recovery Rates Used: Cumulative base case recovery amount of approximately EUR 155.1 million at the BBB (sf) stress level, a 5% and 10% decrease in the base case recovery rate.
-- DBRS Morningstar concludes that a hypothetical decrease of the Recovery Rate by 5%, ceteris paribus, would lead to a downgrade of the Class A notes to B (high) (sf).
-- DBRS Morningstar concludes that a hypothetical decrease of the Recovery Rate by 10%, ceteris paribus, would lead to a downgrade of the Class A notes to B (low) (sf).

Generally, the conditions that lead to the assignment of a Negative or Positive trend are generally resolved within a 12-month period. DBRS Morningstar’s outlooks and ratings are monitored.

For further information on DBRS Morningstar historical default rates published by the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) in a central repository, see: http://cerep.esma.europa.eu/cerep-web/statistics/defaults.xhtml. DBRS Morningstar understands further information on DBRS Morningstar historical default rates may be published by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) on its webpage: https://www.fca.org.uk/firms/credit-rating-agencies.

This rating is endorsed by DBRS Ratings Limited for use in the United Kingdom.

Lead Analyst: Sebastiano Romano, Assistant Vice President
Rating Committee Chair: Christian Aufsatz, Managing Director
Initial Rating Date: 16 December 2019

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The rating methodologies used in the analysis of this transaction can be found at: http://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies.

A description of how DBRS Morningstar analyses structured finance transactions and how the methodologies are collectively applied can be found at: http://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/278375.

For more information on this credit or on this industry, visit www.dbrsmorningstar.com or contact us at info@dbrsmorningstar.com.

ALL MORNINGSTAR DBRS RATINGS ARE SUBJECT TO DISCLAIMERS AND CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. PLEASE READ THESE DISCLAIMERS AND LIMITATIONS AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REGARDING MORNINGSTAR DBRS RATINGS, INCLUDING DEFINITIONS, POLICIES, RATING SCALES AND METHODOLOGIES.

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