Press Release

DBRS Morningstar Confirms Rating on Rosenkavalier 2020 UG (haftungsbeschränkt)

Consumer Loans & Credit Cards

September 30, 2021

DBRS Ratings GmbH (DBRS Morningstar) confirmed the rating on the Class A Notes issued by Rosenkavalier 2020 UG (haftungsbeschränkt) at A (high) (sf).

The rating on the Class A Notes addresses the ultimate repayment of interest and principal by the legal final maturity date of 30 September 2033.

The confirmation follows an annual review of the transaction and is based on the following analytical considerations:
-- Portfolio performance, in terms of delinquencies and defaults, as of the July 2021 payment date;
-- Probability of default (PD), loss given default (LGD), and expected loss assumptions on the receivables;
-- Current available credit enhancement to the Class A Notes to cover the expected losses at their A (high) (sf) rating level;
-- No replenishment period termination event; and
-- Current economic environment and an assessment of sustainable performance, as a result of the Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) pandemic.

The notes are backed by a portfolio of fixed-rate unsecured, amortising personal loans granted to individuals domiciled in Germany and serviced by UniCredit Bank AG (UniCredit or the Originator). The transaction closed in September 2020 and includes a 36-month replenishment period. During this period, the Issuer may purchase additional receivables, provided that the eligibility and replenishment criteria set out in the transaction documents are satisfied. The replenishment period may end earlier than scheduled if certain events, such as the breach of performance triggers, occur. To date, no early amortisation events have occurred.

PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE
As of the July 2021 payment date, loans that were one to two months and two to three months delinquent represented 0.02% and 0.00% of the portfolio balance, respectively. There are no loans more than 90 days in arrears. Gross cumulative defaults amounted to 0.34% of the aggregate original and subsequent portfolios, 15.79% of which have been recovered.

PORTFOLIO ASSUMPTIONS AND KEY DRIVERS
DBRS Morningstar maintained its base case PD and LGD assumptions to 5.2% and 80.0%, respectively.

CREDIT ENHANCEMENT AND RESERVES
The subordination of the Class B Notes provides credit enhancement to the Class A Notes. As of the July 2021 payment date, credit enhancement to the Class A Notes remained unchanged from closing at 21%, given that the transaction is still in the revolving period.

The transaction includes a liquidity reserve, which the Originator would fund when its rating falls below investment grade. The funded liquidity reserve is only available up to the amount not transferred by the servicer to cover the shortfalls in senior expenses and interest on the Class A Notes. DBRS Morningstar considers this arrangement not to be commensurate with a rating addressing the timely payment of scheduled interest in the highest rating categories, resulting in a certain linkage to UniCredit's financial strength, which affects the rating on the Class A Notes.

The Originator will fund a deposit reserve for the excess of all borrowers' deposit exposure over 1% of outstanding loan balances if UniCredit’s rating falls below investment grade. DBRS Morningstar considers the potential 1% assets set-off in its cash flow analysis.

UniCredit is the account bank for the transaction. Based on DBRS Morningstar’s private rating on UniCredit, the downgrade provisions outlined in the transaction documents, and other mitigating factors inherent in the transaction structure, DBRS Morningstar considers the risk arising from the exposure to the account bank to be consistent with the rating assigned to the Class A Notes, as described in DBRS Morningstar's "Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions" methodology.

DBRS Morningstar analysed the transaction structure in Intex DealMaker.

The Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) and the resulting isolation measures have caused an immediate economic contraction, leading in some cases to increases in unemployment rates and income reductions for many borrowers. DBRS Morningstar anticipates that delinquencies may continue to increase in the coming months for many ABS transactions. The rating is based on additional analysis to expected performance as a result of the global efforts to contain the spread of the coronavirus.

For this transaction, DBRS Morningstar conducted additional sensitivity analysis to determine that the transaction benefits from sufficient liquidity support to withstand potentially high payment holiday levels in the portfolio. As of the August 2021 payment date, UniCredit confirmed there were no receivables in the portfolio benefitting from payment moratoriums.

The DBRS Morningstar Sovereign group releases baseline macroeconomic scenarios for rated sovereigns. These scenarios were last updated on 8 September 2021. DBRS Morningstar analysis considered impacts consistent with the baseline scenario in the below referenced report. For details, see the following commentaries: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/384150/baseline-macroeconomic-scenarios-for-rated-sovereigns and https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/384482/baseline-macroeconomic-scenarios-application-to-credit-ratings.

On 8 May 2020, DBRS Morningstar published a commentary outlining how the coronavirus crisis is likely to affect DBRS Morningstar-rated ABS transactions in Europe. For more details, please see: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/360734/european-abs-transactions-risk-exposure-to-coronavirus-covid-19-effect and https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/362712/european-structured-finance-covid-19-credit-risk-exposure-roadmap.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS
A description of how DBRS Morningstar considers ESG factors within the DBRS Morningstar analytical framework can be found in the DBRS Morningstar Criteria: Approach to Environmental, Social, and Governance Risk Factors in Credit Ratings at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/373262.

Notes:
All figures are in euros unless otherwise noted.

The principal methodology applicable to the rating is the “Master European Structured Finance Surveillance Methodology” (8 February 2021).

Other methodologies referenced in this transaction are listed at the end of this press release. These may be found at: http://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies.

DBRS Morningstar has applied the principal methodology consistently and conducted a review of the transaction in accordance with the principal methodology.

A review of the transaction legal documents was not conducted as the legal documents have remained unchanged since the most recent rating action.

For a more detailed discussion of the sovereign risk impact on Structured Finance ratings, please refer to “Appendix C: The Impact of Sovereign Ratings on Other DBRS Morningstar Credit Ratings” of the “Global Methodology for Rating Sovereign Governments” at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/381451/global-methodology-for-rating-sovereign-governments.

The DBRS Morningstar Sovereign group releases baseline macroeconomic scenarios for rated sovereigns. DBRS Morningstar analysis considered impacts consistent with the baseline scenarios as set forth in the following report: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/384482/baseline-macroeconomic-scenarios-application-to-credit-ratings.

The sources of data and information used for this rating include transaction reports and information provided by UniCredit and loan-level data provided by the European DataWarehouse GmbH.

DBRS Morningstar did not rely upon third-party due diligence in order to conduct its analysis.

At the time of the initial rating, DBRS Morningstar was supplied with third-party assessments. However, this did not impact the rating analysis.

DBRS Morningstar considers the data and information available to it for the purposes of providing this rating to be of satisfactory quality.

DBRS Morningstar does not audit or independently verify the data or information it receives in connection with the rating process.

This is the first rating action since the Initial Rating Date.

The lead analyst responsibilities for this transaction have been transferred to Helvia Meana.

Information regarding DBRS Morningstar ratings, including definitions, policies, and methodologies, is available at www.dbrsmorningstar.com.

To assess the impact of changing the transaction parameters on the rating, DBRS Morningstar considered the following stress scenarios as compared with the parameters used to determine the rating (the base case):

-- DBRS Morningstar expected a Default Rate and Loss Given Default (LGD) for the pool based on a review of the current assets. Adverse changes to asset performance may cause stresses to base case assumptions and therefore have a negative effect on credit ratings.
-- The base case Default Rate and LGD of the current pool of loans for the Issuer are 5.2% and 80.0%, respectively.
-- The Risk Sensitivity overview below illustrates the ratings expected if the Expected Default Rate and LGD increase by a certain percentage over the base case assumption. For example, if the LGD increases by 50%, the rating of the Class A Notes would be expected to remain at A (high) (sf), assuming no change in the Expected Default Rate. If the Expected Default Rate increases by 50%, the rating of the Class A Notes would also be expected to remain at A (high) (sf), assuming no change in the LGD. Furthermore, if both the Expected Default Rate and LGD increase by 50%, the rating of the Class A Notes would be expected to be downgraded to A (sf).

Class A Notes Risk Sensitivity:
-- 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in Default Rate, expected rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in Default Rate, expected rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in Default Rate and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in Default Rate and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in Default Rate and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (sf)
-- 50% increase in Default Rate and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (sf)

For further information on DBRS Morningstar historical default rates published by the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) in a central repository, see: http://cerep.esma.europa.eu/cerep-web/statistics/defaults.xhtml. DBRS Morningstar understands further information on DBRS Morningstar historical default rates may be published by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) on its webpage: https://www.fca.org.uk/firms/credit-rating-agencies.

This rating is endorsed by DBRS Ratings Limited for use in the United Kingdom.

Lead Analyst: Helvia Meana, Senior Analyst
Rating Committee Chair: Alfonso Candelas, Senior Vice President
Initial Rating Date: 30 September 2020

DBRS Ratings GmbH
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Geschäftsführer: Detlef Scholz
Amtsgericht Frankfurt am Main, HRB 110259

The rating methodologies used in the analysis of this transaction can be found at: http://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies.

A description of how DBRS Morningstar analyses structured finance transactions and how the methodologies are collectively applied can be found at http://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/278375.

For more information on this credit or on this industry, visit www.dbrsmorningstar.com or contact us at info@dbrsmorningstar.com.

ALL MORNINGSTAR DBRS RATINGS ARE SUBJECT TO DISCLAIMERS AND CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. PLEASE READ THESE DISCLAIMERS AND LIMITATIONS AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REGARDING MORNINGSTAR DBRS RATINGS, INCLUDING DEFINITIONS, POLICIES, RATING SCALES AND METHODOLOGIES.

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