Press Release

DBRS Morningstar Confirms Novo Banco S.A. Covered Bonds (Obrigações Hipotecárias - Mortgages - CPT) Ratings at “A”

Covered Bonds

December 03, 2021

DBRS Ratings GmbH (DBRS Morningstar) confirmed its “A” ratings on the Obrigações Hipotecárias (OH; the Portuguese legislative covered bonds) issued under the Novo Banco S.A. (Novo Banco or the Issuer) Conditional Pass-Through Covered Bond Programme (the Programme). The confirmations follow the completion of a full review of the Programme.

There are seven series of OH outstanding under the Programme totalling a nominal amount of EUR 5.50 billion.

The ratings are based on the following analytical considerations:
-- A Covered Bonds Attachment Point (CBAP) of BB (high), which is the Long Term Critical Obligations Rating of Novo Banco. Novo Banco is the Reference Entity (RE) for the Programme. DBRS Morningstar does not consider OH to be a systemically important financing tool in Portugal; however, DBRS Morningstar considers the assets in the Programme to be strategic to the RE’s core activity.
-- A Legal and Structuring Framework (LSF) Assessment of “Adequate” associated with the Programme.
-- A Cover Pool Credit Assessment (CPCA) of BBB (high), which is the lowest CPCA in line with the LSF-Implied Likelihood (LSF-L).
-- An LSF-L of BBB (high).
-- A two-notch uplift for high recovery prospects.
-- The level of overcollateralisation (OC) of 9.0% to which DBRS Morningstar gives credit, which is the minimum level observed in the past 12 months adjusted by a scaling factor of 0.9.
-- The sovereign rating of the Republic of Portugal, rated BBB (high) with a Stable trend by DBRS Morningstar, as of the date of this press release.

DBRS Morningstar analysed the transaction using its European Covered Bond Cash Flow tool. The main assumptions focused on the timing of defaults and recoveries of the assets, and interest rate stresses.

Everything else equal, a one-notch downgrade of the CBAP would lead to a one-notch downgrade of the LSF-L, resulting in a one-notch downgrade of the CB ratings. In addition, all else unchanged, the OH ratings would be downgraded if any of the following occurred: (1) the CPCA was downgraded below BBB (high); (2) the LSF Assessment associated with the Programme was downgraded; or (3) the quality of the cover pool (CP) and the level of OC were no longer sufficient to support a two-notch uplift for high recovery prospects.

As of 30 September 2021, the aggregated outstanding balance of the CP underlying the Issuer’s OH was EUR 6.05 billion. The total amount of liabilities outstanding is EUR 5.50 billion, yielding a current nominal OC ratio of 10.0%.

The majority (99.97%) of the loans in the CP are prime residential mortgage loans while the rest comprise the cash reserve. As at September 2021, the mortgage CP assets comprised 112,725 residential mortgage loans, with a weighted-average (WA) current unindexed loan-to-value ratio of 56.1%, a WA seasoning of 85 months, and a WA remaining time to maturity of 311 months. The CP is located mainly in Lisbon (46.7% by outstanding balance), northern Portugal (25.3%), and central Portugal (16.3%).

Novo Banco’s OH do not benefit from hedging agreements to cover the mismatch between the interest paid by the CP (91% floating rate linked to different indexes and reset dates) and the interest paid to the CB holders (linked to three-month Euribor plus 25 basis points (bps) with quarterly resets). If the bond maturity is extended, the outstanding series become pass-through, paying one-month Euribor plus 25 bps on a monthly basis. The OC available mitigates this risk, which DBRS Morningstar accounted for in its cash flow analysis.

The DBRS Morningstar-calculated WA life of the mortgage assets is roughly 14 years based on a 0% prepayment rate, which is longer than the 3.1 years of WA life on the OH, not accounting for any maturity extension. The conditional pass-through nature of the OH mitigates this risk.

All CP assets and OH are denominated in euros. As such, investors are not currently exposed to any foreign-exchange risk.

DBRS Morningstar assessed the LSF related to the Programme as “Adequate” according to its rating methodology. For more information, please refer to DBRS Morningstar’s commentaries “DBRS Assigns LSF Assessment to Portuguese Covered Bonds” and “Portuguese Covered Bonds: Legal and Structuring Framework Review,” both available at www.dbrsmorningstar.com.

For further information on the Programme, please refer to the rating report at www.dbrsmorningstar.com.

The Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) and the resulting isolation measures have caused an immediate economic contraction, leading in some cases to increases in unemployment rates and income reductions for many borrowers. DBRS Morningstar anticipates that delinquencies may continue to increase in the coming months for many CPs. The ratings are based on additional analysis to expected performance as a result of the global efforts to contain the spread of the coronavirus.

The DBRS Morningstar Sovereign group releases baseline macroeconomic scenarios for rated sovereigns. These scenarios were last updated on 8 September 2021. The DBRS Morningstar analysis considered impacts consistent with the baseline scenario in the below referenced report. For details see the following commentaries: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/384150/baseline-macroeconomic-scenarios-for-rated-sovereigns and https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/384482/baseline-macroeconomic-scenarios-application-to-credit-ratings.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS
A description of how DBRS Morningstar considers ESG factors within the DBRS Morningstar analytical framework can be found in the DBRS Morningstar Criteria: Approach to Environmental, Social, and Governance Risk Factors in Credit Ratings at https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/373262.

Notes:
All figures are in euros unless otherwise noted.

The principal methodology applicable to the ratings is: Rating and Monitoring Covered Bonds (10 June 2021).

Other methodologies referenced in this transaction are listed at the end of this press release. These may be found at: http://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies.

DBRS Morningstar has applied the principal methodology consistently and conducted a review of the transaction in accordance with the surveillance section of the principal methodology.

A review of the transaction legal documents was not conducted as the legal documents have remained unchanged since the most recent rating action.

For a more detailed discussion of the sovereign risk impact on Structured Finance ratings, please refer to “Appendix C: The Impact of Sovereign Ratings on Other DBRS Morningstar Credit Ratings” of the “Global Methodology for Rating Sovereign Governments” at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/381451/global-methodology-for-rating-sovereign-governments.

The DBRS Morningstar Sovereign group releases baseline macroeconomic scenarios for rated sovereigns. DBRS Morningstar analysis considered impacts consistent with the baseline scenarios as set forth in the following report: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/384482/baseline-macroeconomic-scenarios-application-to-credit-ratings.

The sources of data and information used for these ratings include investor reports and loan-by-loan data on the CP as at 30 September 2021, dynamic delinquencies (90+ days), and defaults (12+ months) data on Novo Banco’s mortgage book spanning from 2004 to Q3 2021 and 2002–20, respectively, provided by the Issuer.

DBRS Morningstar did not rely upon third-party due diligence in order to conduct its analysis.

At the time of the initial ratings, DBRS Morningstar was not supplied with third-party assessments. However, this did not impact the rating analysis.

DBRS Morningstar considers the data and information available to it for the purposes of providing these ratings to be of satisfactory quality.

DBRS Morningstar does not audit or independently verify the data or information it receives in connection with the rating process.

The last rating action on this transaction took place on 5 March 2021, when DBRS Morningstar confirmed its “A” ratings on the series outstanding under the Programme.

Information regarding DBRS Morningstar ratings, including definitions, policies, and methodologies, is available on www.dbrsmorningstar.com.

For further information on DBRS Morningstar historical default rates published by the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) in a central repository, see: http://cerep.esma.europa.eu/cerep-web/statistics/defaults.xhtml. DBRS Morningstar understands further information on DBRS Morningstar historical default rates may be published by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) on its webpage: https://www.fca.org.uk/firms/credit-rating-agencies.

These ratings are endorsed by DBRS Ratings Limited for use in the United Kingdom.

Lead Analyst: Tomás Rodriguez-Vigil Junco, Vice President
Rating Committee Chair: Ketan Thaker, Managing Director
Initial Rating Date: 15 December 2015

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The rating methodologies used in the analysis of this transaction can be found at: http://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies.

A description of how DBRS Morningstar analyses structured finance transactions and how the methodologies are collectively applied can be found at: http://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/278375.

For more information on this credit or on this industry, visit www.dbrsmorningstar.com or contact us at info@dbrsmorningstar.com.

ALL MORNINGSTAR DBRS RATINGS ARE SUBJECT TO DISCLAIMERS AND CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. PLEASE READ THESE DISCLAIMERS AND LIMITATIONS AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REGARDING MORNINGSTAR DBRS RATINGS, INCLUDING DEFINITIONS, POLICIES, RATING SCALES AND METHODOLOGIES.

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