DBRS Morningstar Confirms Rating on Nostrum Mortgages No. 2

DBRS Ratings GmbH (DBRS Morningstar) confirmed its AAA (sf) rating on the Class A notes issued by Nostrum Mortgages No. 2 (the Issuer).

The rating addresses the timely payment of interest and ultimate payment of principal on or before the legal final maturity date in May 2065.

The rating action follows an annual review of the transaction and is based on the following analytical considerations:
-- Portfolio performance, in terms of delinquencies, defaults, and losses as of the February 2022 payment date;
-- Probability of default (PD), loss given default (LGD), and expected loss assumptions on the remaining receivables;
-- Current available credit enhancement to the Class A notes to cover the expected losses at the AAA (sf) rating level;
-- Current economic environment and an assessment of sustainable performance, as a result of the Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) pandemic.

Nostrum Mortgages No. 2 is a securitisation of Portuguese residential mortgage loans originated and serviced by Caixa Geral de Depósitos S.A. On 5 November 2010, the special-purpose vehicle issued mortgage‐backed floating-rate notes, Class A and Class B, in addition to Class C notes, to finance the purchase of the mortgage portfolio and fund the cash reserve. In April 2016, a liquidity reserve was incorporated into the transaction to mitigate payment disruption risks from the Servicer.

PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE
As of the February 2022 payment date, there were no loans in the two- to three-month arrears bucket. Loans more than three months in arrears represented 0.1% of the outstanding portfolio balance, stable since February 2021. As of the February 2022 payment date, cumulative write-offs were 4.4%.

PORTFOLIO ASSUMPTIONS AND KEY DRIVERS
DBRS Morningstar conducted a loan-by-loan analysis of the remaining pool of receivables, and updated its base case PD and LGD assumptions to 9.0% and 24.5%, respectively.

CREDIT ENHANCEMENT
Credit enhancement consists of subordination of the Class B notes and a cash reserve fund. As of the February 2022 payment date, credit enhancement to the Class A notes was 54.4%, up from 50.7% as of the February 2021 payment date.

The cash reserve fund covers senior fees, swap payments, and any interest shortfall or principal loss on the Class A notes via the principal deficiency ledger and is at its target level of EUR 78.1 million (or 3% of the period’s beginning balance of Class A and Class B notes). The transaction also benefits from a liquidity reserve fund that covers senior fees, swap payments, and any interest shortfall on the Class A notes to mitigate potential disruptions in the servicing activities. The liquidity reserve fund is at its target level of EUR 14.4 million (or 1.2% of the outstanding balance of the Class A notes).

Banco Santander SA (Santander) acts as the account bank for the transaction. Based on the account bank reference rating of Santander at A (high), one notch below the DBRS Morningstar public Long-Term Critical Obligations Rating (COR) of AA (low), the downgrade provisions outlined in the transaction documents, and structural mitigants inherent in the transaction structure, DBRS Morningstar considers the risk arising from the exposure to the account bank to be consistent with the rating assigned to the Class A notes, as described in DBRS Morningstar's "Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions" methodology.

Santander also acts as the swap counterparty for the transaction. DBRS Morningstar's public Long-Term COR of Santander at AA (low) is above the First Rating Threshold as described in DBRS Morningstar's "Derivative Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions" methodology.

DBRS Morningstar analysed the transaction structure in Intex.

The Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) and the resulting isolation measures had caused an economic contraction, leading in some cases to increases in unemployment rates and income reductions for borrowers.

The DBRS Morningstar Sovereign group releases baseline macroeconomic scenarios for rated sovereigns. These scenarios were last updated on 24 March 2022. DBRS Morningstar analysis considered impacts consistent with the baseline scenario in the below referenced report. For details, see the following commentaries: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/394150/baseline-macroeconomic-scenarios-for-rated-sovereigns-march-2022-update and https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/384482/baseline-macroeconomic-scenarios-application-to-credit-ratings.

On 14 March 2022, DBRS Morningstar updated its 5 May 2020 commentary outlining the impact of the coronavirus crisis on performance of DBRS Morningstar-rated RMBS transactions in Europe. For more details, please see: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/393639/emerging-from-the-covid-19-pandemic-update-on-european-mortgage-performance and https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/360599/european-rmbs-transactions-risk-exposure-to-coronavirus-covid-19-effect.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS
A description of how DBRS Morningstar considers ESG factors within the DBRS Morningstar analytical framework can be found in the DBRS Morningstar Criteria: Approach to Environmental, Social, and Governance Risk Factors in Credit Ratings at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/373262.

Notes:
All figures are in euros unless otherwise noted.

The principal methodology applicable to the rating is the “Master European Structured Finance Surveillance Methodology” (8 February 2022).

Other methodologies referenced in this transaction are listed at the end of this press release. These may be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies.

DBRS Morningstar has applied the principal methodology consistently and conducted a review of the transaction in accordance with the principal methodology.

A review of the transaction legal documents was not conducted as the legal documents have remained unchanged since the most recent rating action.

For a more detailed discussion of the sovereign risk impact on Structured Finance ratings, please refer to “Appendix C: The Impact of Sovereign Ratings on Other DBRS Morningstar Credit Ratings” of the “Global Methodology for Rating Sovereign Governments” at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/381451/global-methodology-for-rating-sovereign-governments.

The DBRS Morningstar Sovereign group releases baseline macroeconomic scenarios for rated sovereigns. DBRS Morningstar analysis considered impacts consistent with the baseline scenarios as set forth in the following report: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/384482/baseline-macroeconomic-scenarios-application-to-credit-ratings.

The sources of data and information used for this rating include investor reports provided by Deutsche Bank AG, London Branch, and loan-level data provided by the European DataWarehouse GmbH.

DBRS Morningstar did not rely upon third-party due diligence in order to conduct its analysis.

At the time of the initial rating, DBRS Morningstar was not supplied with third-party assessments. However, this did not impact the rating analysis.

DBRS Morningstar considers the data and information available to it for the purposes of providing this rating to be of satisfactory quality.

DBRS Morningstar does not audit or independently verify the data or information it receives in connection with the rating process.

The last rating action on this transaction took place on 26 March 2021, when DBRS Morningstar upgraded its rating on the Class A notes to AAA (sf) from AA (high) (sf).

The lead analyst responsibilities for this transaction have been transferred to Daniele Canestrari.

Information regarding DBRS Morningstar ratings, including definitions, policies and methodologies is available at www.dbrsmorningstar.com.

To assess the impact of changing the transaction parameters on the rating, DBRS Morningstar considered the following stress scenarios as compared with the parameters used to determine the rating (the Base Case):

-- DBRS Morningstar expected a lifetime base case PD and LGD for the pool based on a review of the current assets. Adverse changes to asset performance may cause stresses to base case assumptions and therefore have a negative effect on credit ratings.

-- The base case PD and LGD of the current pool of loans for the Issuer are 9.0% and 24.5%, respectively.

-- The risk sensitivity overview below illustrates the ratings expected if the PD and LGD increase by a certain percentage over the base case assumption. For example, if the LGD increases by 50%, the rating of the Class A notes would be expected to remain at AAA (sf), assuming no change in the PD. If the PD increases by 50%, the rating of the Class A notes would be remain at AAA (sf), assuming no change in the LGD. Furthermore, if both the PD and LGD increase by 50%, the rating of the Class A notes would be expected to fall to AA (high) (sf).

Class A notes Risk Sensitivity:
-- 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of AAA (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of AAA (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected rating of AAA (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected rating of AA (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of AAA (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of AAA (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (high) (sf)

For further information on DBRS Morningstar historical default rates published by the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) in a central repository, see: http://cerep.esma.europa.eu/cerep-web/statistics/defaults.xhtml. DBRS Morningstar understands further information on DBRS Morningstar historical default rates may be published by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) on its webpage: https://www.fca.org.uk/firms/credit-rating-agencies.

This rating is endorsed by DBRS Ratings Limited for use in the United Kingdom.

Lead Analyst: Daniele Canestrari, Assistant Vice President
Rating Committee Chair: Alfonso Candelas, Senior Vice President
Initial Rating Date: 4 May 2012

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The rating methodologies used in the analysis of this transaction can be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies.

-- Master European Structured Finance Surveillance Methodology (8 February 2022), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/392000/master-european-structured-finance-surveillance-methodology.
-- Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions (29 July 2021), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/382171/legal-criteria-for-european-structured-finance-transactions.
-- Operational Risk Assessment for European Structured Finance Servicers (16 September 2021), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/384513/operational-risk-assessment-for-european-structured-finance-servicers.
-- Derivative Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions (20 September 2021), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/384624/derivative-criteria-for-european-structured-finance-transactions.
-- Interest Rate Stresses for European Structured Finance Transactions (24 September 2021), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/384920/interest-rate-stresses-for-european-structured-finance-transactions.
-- DBRS Morningstar Criteria: Approach to Environmental, Social, and Governance Risk Factors in Credit Ratings (3 February 2021),
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/373262/dbrs-morningstar-criteria-approach-to-environmental-social-and-governance-risk-factors-in-credit-ratings.
-- Master European Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities Rating Methodology and Jurisdictional Addenda (29 November 2021) and European RMBS Credit Model 1.0.0.0, https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/388848/master-european-residential-mortgage-backed-securities-rating-methodology-and-jurisdictional-addenda.

A description of how DBRS Morningstar analyses structured finance transactions and how the methodologies are collectively applied can be found at https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/278375.

For more information on this credit or on this industry, visit www.dbrsmorningstar.com or contact us at info@dbrsmorningstar.com.